Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d218ef019f316addfd80390c58978f45540460c5e3d2fb8b878907a1a414e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 13,570$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 9,142$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,978$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 3,144$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 2,694$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.24 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 33c | 2,650$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,740$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 1,645$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 25c | 1,569$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.74 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 1c | 1,235$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 71c | 1,147$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.03 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 6c | 1,038$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 999.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.27 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…85f7backed Yes | 1c | 908.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 25c | 822.01$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.77 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 25c | 814.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 27c | 811.46$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 754.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 668.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 23c | 581.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 23c | 578.86$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.62 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 77c | 567.51$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 73c | 563.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 12c | 471.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 30c | 388.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 29c | 382.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 27c | 376.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…4207backed Yes | 21c | 375.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 341.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 29c | 321.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 18c | 304.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 280.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 71c | 270.4$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed No | 79c | 254.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6a48backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 246.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 33c | 242.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 26c | 234.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 222.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 203.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 25c | 201.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b15ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 159.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 79c | 149.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…ea97backed Yes | 24c | 142.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…ef1abacked Yes | 29c | 137.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 26c | 101.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…95a5backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…a74bbacked Yes | 26c | 96.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 20c | 94.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 21c | 77.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…050fbacked Yes | 21c | 72.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…9acbbacked Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb6…140fbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a92…2519backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 28c | 36.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.