Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6009cd63be1742b38865bdaeeb98d39e15bd62be57d51e4788b822bd8576364f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $398,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 22c | 16,356$3,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,760.45 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 5c | 15,180$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.69 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 47c | 13,264$6,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,040.29 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 17c | 12,527$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,385.62 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 27c | 9,646$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,081.69 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…91e9backed Yes | 41c | 7,056$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,172.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 17c | 6,950$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,789.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 5,724$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.45 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9711…3fa1backed Yes | 65c | 5,497$3,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…7b94backed No | 74c | 5,310$3,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,902.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 28c | 5,197$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,734.53 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 31c | 4,989$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.67 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 14c | 4,351$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,723.03 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 60c | 4,239$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.82 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 4,102$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 30c | 3,870$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,690.17 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 3,220$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.74 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 53c | 3,132$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 21c | 3,041$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.96 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed Yes | 19c | 3,006$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,664 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 69c | 2,861$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.55 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 78c | 2,688$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 18c | 2,675$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked No | 0c | 2,550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 66c | 2,382$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 24c | 2,202$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.23 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 56c | 2,007$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.19 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 1,988$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.05 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,959$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 1,907$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.29 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,884$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.83 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 8c | 1,866$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,820$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.99 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 45c | 1,765$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,736$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.52 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,729$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed No | 71c | 1,726$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 25c | 1,711$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.91 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 32c | 1,700$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.18 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 71c | 1,552$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…47e9backed Yes | 71c | 1,500$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.99 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 53c | 1,486$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.24 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,479$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.66 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 64c | 1,470$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.22 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 20c | 1,397$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.34 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,396$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.51 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 3c | 1,379$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.01 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 18c | 1,378$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.84 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,360$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.57 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 27c | 1,300$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,288$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.97 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 1,252$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.78 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,220$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.15 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,216$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…da37backed Yes | 27c | 1,133$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.09 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 12c | 1,113$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.51 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 19c | 1,067$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.86 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,023$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.25 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 16c | 999.88$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.64 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked No | 34c | 939.9$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.59 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 23c | 900$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…98eabacked Yes | 7c | 886.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +358.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 67c | 871.19$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked No | 12c | 862.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed No | 65c | 860.17$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…e382backed Yes | 18c | 834.29$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 53c | 825.42$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 14c | 820.35$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.12 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 23c | 811.52$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.55 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…a1d6backed Yes | 8c | 770.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed Yes | 41c | 750.02$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 36c | 750$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…9ae3backed No | 16c | 720$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 18c | 717.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 704.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.32 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 24c | 683.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.68 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 69c | 661.98$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…41a9backed Yes | 44c | 632.39$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 27c | 622.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.43 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…b287backed Yes | 18c | 618.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…dc54backed Yes | 76c | 611.47$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 72c | 558$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 18c | 555.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 75c | 544.43$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 13c | 538.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.4 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked Yes | 68c | 529.47$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 19c | 514.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 502.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.47 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 20c | 501.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.25 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 34c | 500.01$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 12c | 498.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.67 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6abd…9d3cbacked Yes | 30c | 489.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 74c | 459.74$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…a7ccbacked Yes | 22c | 447.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd4…ee0cbacked Yes | 70c | 444.81$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…4790backed Yes | 14c | 442.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 230 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.