Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28df1eeca8ccf25b4de7d154ffc8081c58347a3155943aeff912f23876426e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 54,450$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.28 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…56d0backed Yes | 1c | 34,974$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 15,503$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.81 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 14,725$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…8fc0backed Yes | 0c | 12,914$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,953$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,613$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.04 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,479$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 0c | 3,628$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 11c | 3,558$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.19 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 3,546$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.48 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 15c | 3,267$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 18c | 3,001$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 6c | 2,921$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,721$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.15 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 2,420$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.33 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,148$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 10c | 2,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 2,028$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.85 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 14c | 2,004$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,791$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,490$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed Yes | 15c | 1,254$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 1,244$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 1,102$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 939.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 15c | 873.81$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 864.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…04edbacked Yes | 15c | 859.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…b287backed Yes | 2c | 855.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 793.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 737.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…25cbbacked Yes | 12c | 711$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…a402backed Yes | 11c | 699.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 682$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 18c | 666$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3ec6backed Yes | 18c | 664.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 12c | 601.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 7c | 550.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 489.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 14c | 478.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…41f7backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 12c | 447.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 12c | 421.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 21c | 386.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 17c | 376.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 17c | 361.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 14c | 328.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 306.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 302.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…4969backed Yes | 14c | 280.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8de8backed Yes | 7c | 269$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 266.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…9febbacked Yes | 16c | 208.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…90b7backed Yes | 13c | 154.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 7c | 147.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…aa11backed Yes | 12c | 142.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 14c | 141.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…8751backed Yes | 18c | 140.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…b263backed Yes | 16c | 136.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…4855backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…391ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 12c | 122.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…f656backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…65d0backed Yes | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 16c | 117.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a39…3180backed Yes | 17c | 116.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f89…b168backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…ea97backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 97.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 19c | 97.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 94.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb765…f696backed Yes | 12c | 90.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…5672backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…fb48backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 13c | 79.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.