Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67490e4740a2d8050727b37843dff5030faedb4b13cab9b86e7524c2c02c650d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 25,246$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.03 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd58…186dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,958$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 0c | 12,412$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,050$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,282$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 4,800$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,997$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 3c | 2,574$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 2,341$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,026$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,036$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes | 3c | 871.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 12c | 779.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 9c | 699.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…d7d1backed Yes | 16c | 636.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 11c | 549.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…5408backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 11c | 455.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 7c | 425.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 10c | 355.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…caa7backed Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…22dabacked Yes | 6c | 338.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 310.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 10c | 304.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 10c | 299.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 12c | 254.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…7004backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…1a2cbacked Yes | 12c | 172.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…3b80backed Yes | 12c | 166.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 12c | 163.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…5754backed Yes | 13c | 158.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…2f34backed Yes | 13c | 152.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…692abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…1172backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…0b90backed Yes | 12c | 121.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…c413backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.