Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f61c465515c8e5b23ea61c0b677486b73d0777d4038eef1edb41e9a4b65aebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 5c | 18,457$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.51 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 12c | 16,667$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.56 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 15,224$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.17 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 10c | 11,802$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.67 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…a5eabacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 3c | 9,905$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 9c | 8,447$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.46 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 16c | 7,690$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.35 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,667$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.26 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 28c | 3,620$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 9c | 3,549$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.78 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 3,532$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 18c | 3,348$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,261$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.02 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 3,229$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,051$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 1c | 3,041$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 20c | 3,038$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,754$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,752$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.67 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 9c | 2,616$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.26 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 4c | 2,392$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 13c | 2,076$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 2,057$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.82 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,935$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…4ac2backed Yes | 9c | 1,758$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 14c | 1,652$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…d57abacked Yes | 13c | 1,492$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,472$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,469$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,448$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,363$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 7c | 1,356$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,258$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 24c | 1,233$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…739cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,159$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 4c | 1,045$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,035$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…8fedbacked Yes | 15c | 983.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 29c | 969.56$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 13c | 953.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…79d3backed Yes | 11c | 929.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 13c | 892.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 18c | 887.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 6c | 806.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 22c | 695.07$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…aec0backed Yes | 15c | 681.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 23c | 624.12$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 5c | 602.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…906fbacked Yes | 2c | 601$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 20c | 600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 12c | 569.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 19c | 568.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 11c | 568.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 13c | 561.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 561.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 541$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d1…e590backed Yes | 19c | 532.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…3b80backed Yes | 4c | 512.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 8c | 511.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…7d5fbacked Yes | 20c | 500.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 10c | 499.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 8c | 498.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…4790backed Yes | 7c | 496.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…b41cbacked Yes | 7c | 494.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 8c | 451.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 19c | 432.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 22c | 431.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 4c | 420.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 25c | 416.18$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 13c | 406.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4fe9backed Yes | 12c | 406$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 15c | 405.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 8c | 396.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…10eebacked Yes | 7c | 391.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 14c | 388.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 13c | 386.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 8c | 375.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 360.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…28d0backed Yes | 28c | 356.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 343.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 77c | 327.51$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 19c | 323.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…849cbacked Yes | 16c | 319.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 17c | 304.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…4e33backed Yes | 6c | 301.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.