Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf036d981c65c089883ef9b8188398dd929774f734c4a1f6a93e77dbe6a822f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $625,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $648,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd12d…d764backed No | 14c | 22,883$3,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,295.82 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 72c | 18,973$13,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,405.81 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 25c | 9,229$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked No | 8c | 9,079$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.03 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 34c | 8,899$3,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,844.8 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 9c | 8,180$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.06 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 48c | 6,929$3,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,588.1 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 34c | 6,400$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,212.03 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 69c | 6,342$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.45 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked No | 1c | 6,281$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 34c | 6,145$2,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,056.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 1c | 4,879$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 69c | 3,988$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 28c | 3,926$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832.49 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 3,677$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 34c | 3,618$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.02 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…e52fbacked No | 11c | 3,410$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 33c | 3,364$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.22 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 39c | 3,208$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.81 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,765$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.97 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 2,725$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.72 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 61c | 2,359$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.12 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…480dbacked No | 9c | 2,202$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…daa9backed Yes | 56c | 2,171$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 36c | 2,152$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.57 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 22c | 1,977$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.64 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 76c | 1,767$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.71 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,713$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.58 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 1,702$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.27 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 18c | 1,603$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.88 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 45c | 1,599$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.13 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 38c | 1,594$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.78 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…4ac2backed Yes | 39c | 1,554$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.82 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 26c | 1,459$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.64 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 39c | 1,318$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.53 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,252$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.38 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 31c | 1,236$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.79 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,152$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.25 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d1…e590backed No | 72c | 1,138$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…4d2bbacked No | 3c | 1,007$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.62 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 36c | 999.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…e59fbacked Yes | 23c | 998.92$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9960…43c1backed Yes | 32c | 953.2$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 19c | 913.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 50c | 878.96$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.03 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 23c | 822.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…fb3fbacked No | 10c | 812.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 800$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked No | 72c | 789.4$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.07 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…0008backed No | 64c | 781.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked No | 12c | 779.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed No | 35c | 749.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 681.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc6…0522backed Yes | 15c | 680$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 67c | 669.55$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 33c | 665.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.21 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed No | 56c | 650.49$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.27 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 47c | 635.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.61 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 24c | 631.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.87 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 32c | 626.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.45 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 35c | 625.97$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.97 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 61c | 618.73$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…a498backed Yes | 12c | 597.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…79d3backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 48c | 575.77$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…d383backed Yes | 58c | 554.98$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed No | 8c | 548.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 74c | 543.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…ac1dbacked No | 59c | 537.39$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 13c | 532.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.26 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 16c | 527.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.86 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed No | 15c | 521.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…6412backed Yes | 44c | 513.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 44c | 510$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.9 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 12c | 487.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed No | 63c | 487.27$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…9eb0backed Yes | 42c | 478.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…8b42backed No | 9c | 477.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…a402backed Yes | 26c | 460.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 70c | 458.75$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 48c | 438.18$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.18 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea8…57d7backed Yes | 25c | 435.48$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 431.05$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.41 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 14c | 426.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…b788backed No | 71c | 424.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 420.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.65 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 79c | 396.22$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 33c | 379.77$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 36c | 375.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed No | 63c | 371.72$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 342.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.51 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 13c | 321$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.82 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.