Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fefd42f82aefca26dd87d69285ad626fdb72fe6f1e1c96fe6890ed938723c95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c9d…8fedbacked Yes | 0c | 91,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,788$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.72 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,468$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 1c | 8,223$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 4,800$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…a935backed Yes | 23c | 4,383$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,327$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 3,393$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 12c | 3,328$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 17c | 2,250$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.09 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 2,227$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 2,048$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,890$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 1c | 1,681$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,270$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.57 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…a2c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,202$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,098$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,014$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 11c | 862.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 3c | 754.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 629.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 14c | 568.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 15c | 550$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 13c | 549.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…4855backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 11c | 406.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 11c | 404.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…ef9abacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 34c | 294.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 17c | 260.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…634fbacked Yes | 8c | 258.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 16c | 227.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…d7d1backed Yes | 22c | 226.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 18c | 225.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…85f7backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 6c | 222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…2f34backed Yes | 18c | 216.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 19c | 215$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…784abacked Yes | 16c | 206.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 10c | 200.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 10c | 195.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes | 13c | 189.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922f…764dbacked Yes | 17c | 184.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…3041backed Yes | 20c | 180.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…692abacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…0b90backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 13c | 149.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…00f7backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 17c | 141.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…7004backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…4900backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…5754backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…c413backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…ef11backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9399…849cbacked Yes | 18c | 112.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 18c | 109.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 17c | 108.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…941abacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…1a2cbacked Yes | 17c | 100.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…19c7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 17c | 80.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26a…f740backed Yes | 24c | 79.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…ff9cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…0b42backed Yes | 19c | 51.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.