Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf967153a305b487519f6a4469c24055d0dc409422753276f46d9dbe97b82f168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 13,273$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.54 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,903$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.84 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,498$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,989$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.61 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 17c | 2,616$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,300$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 8c | 2,063$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 7c | 2,002$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 10c | 1,963$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,880$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.57 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,747$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 1,677$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,317$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 12c | 1,238$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.56 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…4ac2backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 11c | 1,108$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 8c | 999.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 5c | 998.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 14c | 988.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 943.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed Yes | 13c | 846.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 9c | 833.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 820.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 12c | 806.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 14c | 708.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 10c | 662.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 10c | 599.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 12c | 595.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 11c | 573.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 8c | 500.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 8c | 456.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 423.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 15c | 405.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 336.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 12c | 335.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 12c | 319.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 307.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed Yes | 17c | 292.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 285.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 12c | 248.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 5c | 221.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea0…5c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…a4a1backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…4855backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…5754backed Yes | 10c | 198.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4233…85f7backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 12c | 170.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 12c | 168.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…b2ccbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 12c | 160.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 150.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…7273backed Yes | 18c | 144.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0784…9e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 142.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…0b90backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…391ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8de8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…fd52backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 11c | 105.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad1…c3c9backed Yes | 20c | 100.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ad11backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…19c7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…2f06backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes | 15c | 97.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…65d0backed Yes | 20c | 89.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 15c | 87.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…f3dbbacked Yes | 13c | 81.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…a5f0backed Yes | 20c | 79.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…941abacked Yes | 19c | 51.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.