Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481b24a26dae898de7a43b72b314b43a33104e4d46539805f152949cde705ad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $360,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e8…1c53backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 23,774$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.09 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 18,044$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.54 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 3c | 14,762$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,504$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 10,875$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.29 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 8,048$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,263$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 7c | 3,829$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,529$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 1c | 3,528$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,462$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 16c | 3,039$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,591$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.68 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,521$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…8fc0backed Yes | 1c | 2,390$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…0008backed Yes | 22c | 2,294$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 2,255$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.99 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…5672backed Yes | 1c | 2,093$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 2,040$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.54 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 16c | 1,916$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.29 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 14c | 1,859$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 1,809$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…49f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,767$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 1,669$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.72 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,602$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 15c | 1,554$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,488$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,400$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…a0efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,355$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,331$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,312$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 1,280$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…ee71backed Yes | 15c | 1,219$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…04edbacked Yes | 18c | 1,096$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,080$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,065$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 3c | 1,051$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 1c | 999.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked Yes | 24c | 987.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 13c | 982.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…79d3backed Yes | 11c | 981.58$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 979.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 3c | 798.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…5f38backed Yes | 16c | 786.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 784.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 18c | 776.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 3c | 644.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…54fabacked Yes | 16c | 633.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 17c | 617.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 7c | 613.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 12c | 611.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 17c | 591.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…626fbacked Yes | 3c | 590.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…a402backed Yes | 9c | 568.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 13c | 549.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 22c | 542.25$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a0…093bbacked Yes | 8c | 513.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed Yes | 10c | 480.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…48f9backed Yes | 8c | 477.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 14c | 474.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 13c | 449.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 6c | 435.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 14c | 407.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 3c | 394.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3781…9be0backed Yes | 3c | 375.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 365.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 16c | 357.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 18c | 338.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 338.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…93a8backed Yes | 3c | 329.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 18c | 326.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +241.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…4969backed Yes | 18c | 291.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 18c | 282.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…3078backed Yes | 13c | 267.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 80c | 262.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 12c | 245.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…1a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 243.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…7420backed Yes | 8c | 240.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd3…4b3ebacked Yes | 9c | 231.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 11c | 231.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6?this page
- Will Elon tweet 110–124 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 155–169 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 170–184 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 185–199 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 80–94 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 80 times May 30–June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.