World Politics · resolved market
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c3f09b54e6cbf561205de7177a4cf99634bcf96e880601b124d8ebfdca9e2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,483,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,756,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,483,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 7c | 504,987$36,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,507.99 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…dad1backed Yes | 3c | 201,331$6,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,381.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 16c | 172,779$27,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,558.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…4a76backed Yes | 1c | 156,390$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…1b9dbacked Yes | 0c | 142,691$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +504.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 119,602$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.85 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 20c | 110,000$21,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,504.07 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f95…1ecfbacked Yes | 19c | 105,257$19,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,807.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…f0dabacked Yes | 45c | 88,994$39,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,951 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 17c | 85,223$14,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,575.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 83,560$4,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.79 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 7c | 76,165$5,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492.11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Yes | 32c | 71,994$22,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,731.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…c758backed Yes | 37c | 68,944$25,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,371.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…44babacked Yes | 20c | 66,718$13,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,666 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 0c | 65,193$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 26c | 63,188$16,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,150.05 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 59,816$16,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,900 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 35c | 52,307$18,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,499.39 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 48,040$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.93 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…14ccbacked Yes | 12c | 45,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…e8adbacked Yes | 3c | 44,636$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 27c | 42,111$11,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,375.98 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 27c | 41,692$11,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,257.2 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,900$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 39,541$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…ed67backed Yes | 5c | 38,824$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 36,056$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.3 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…f8edbacked Yes | 33c | 34,595$11,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,578.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…3775backed Yes | 7c | 33,580$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 23c | 32,828$7,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,615.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 8c | 32,795$2,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…7dfbbacked Yes | 28c | 31,748$8,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,812.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc1…d18ebacked Yes | 9c | 31,000$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed Yes | 32c | 29,083$9,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,239.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,050$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…1391backed Yes | 1c | 27,644$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 23c | 27,589$6,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,456.05 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 27,533$20,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,368.11 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 23c | 27,407$6,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,314.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d978backed Yes | 26c | 27,184$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 26c | 25,083$6,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,504.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…6dbcbacked Yes | 5c | 24,871$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…867ebacked Yes | 23c | 24,527$5,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,579.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 24,234$16,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,294.19 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 30c | 22,206$6,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,623.9 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…2cf5backed Yes | 30c | 22,189$6,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,663.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…f00ebacked Yes | 10c | 21,543$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…7cc1backed Yes | 26c | 21,475$5,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,478.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 44c | 20,928$9,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,224.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,914$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…2d40backed Yes | 23c | 19,960$4,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,583.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd32…33c4backed Yes | 32c | 19,672$6,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,270.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 27c | 19,378$5,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,288.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…7196backed Yes | 13c | 19,124$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…08d2backed Yes | 32c | 19,064$6,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,048.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…2a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 18,973$5,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,623.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 4c | 18,511$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.43 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 1c | 18,493$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…17e7backed Yes | 23c | 18,392$4,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,211.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…f6c8backed Yes | 30c | 18,086$5,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,472.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 24c | 16,759$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 21c | 16,730$3,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,513.27 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 16,399$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,296.7 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…ac98backed Yes | 31c | 16,043$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,025 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 30c | 15,500$4,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,614 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 67c | 15,195$10,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,977.23 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 19c | 15,080$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.25 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 34c | 15,006$5,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,102.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…9704backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8378…8b50backed Yes | 24c | 14,569$3,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…8d41backed Yes | 28c | 14,565$4,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,127.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 7c | 14,434$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.95 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,000$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 11c | 13,898$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.59 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…171fbacked Yes | 25c | 13,700$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 33c | 13,373$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,461.96 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…b5e8backed Yes | 5c | 13,307$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4036backed Yes | 14c | 12,976$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…e3c2backed Yes | 11c | 12,675$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 22c | 12,498$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.13 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…0a59backed Yes | 31c | 12,443$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…d847backed Yes | 1c | 12,435$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed Yes | 33c | 12,152$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes | 4c | 11,971$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…3c01backed Yes | 16c | 11,970$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,855.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f358backed Yes | 13c | 11,897$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…da4ebacked Yes | 17c | 11,879$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…6f8abacked Yes | 13c | 11,826$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…8adfbacked Yes | 24c | 11,708$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…e0e3backed Yes | 39c | 11,618$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,551.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…91b0backed Yes | 33c | 11,560$3,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 8c | 11,452$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…380ebacked Yes | 34c | 11,402$3,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,878.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…5353backed Yes | 30c | 11,398$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,470.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Yes | 30c | 11,130$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.43 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…5841backed Yes | 25c | 11,105$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…e5babacked Yes | 25c | 11,017$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b3…b18bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,908$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 32c | 10,816$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,495 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?this page
- Will George Simion win by 0–6%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 12–18%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 6–12%?No won
- Will George Simion win by over 18%?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?Yes won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.