TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will another candidate win?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,642,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$846,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,642,327 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes0c209,470$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c101,256$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.515132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa275…c758backed Yes2c90,788$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9c…2f3ebacked Yes0c90,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+113.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes0c84,446$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.65626.8%15 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes0c76,000$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.886119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…7828backed Yes0c70,744$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2360%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c68,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152684.4%3 W · 65 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+417.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes1c65,311$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.83342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes1c59,331$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320895.6%5 W · 84 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-90.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fad…2055backed Yes1c57,647$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f95…1ecfbacked Yes0c57,587$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf975…9381backed Yes1c55,856$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.1480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes0c46,713$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.413636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes0c33,315$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.946434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x779d…c3b9backed Yes0c29,988$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356a…17e7backed Yes0c28,670$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.881625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6674…a4e4backed Yes0c27,133$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.68922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+86.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x452f…626bbacked Yes0c26,880$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72e…7dfbbacked Yes0c26,782$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.871216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253625%9 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb076…e62dbacked Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3455…ae6abacked Yes0c20,781$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d81…fc1ebacked Yes0c20,100$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.53616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7f…4dcdbacked Yes0c20,075$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes0c19,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c17,724$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.796883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes0c17,458$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.462326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes1c16,164$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.993930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…5074backed Yes1c15,076$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.72520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8c…6f8abacked Yes0c12,622$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…b069backed Yes1c11,141$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.71633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x359a…08d2backed Yes0c10,398$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+133.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x322c…4aa0backed Yes0c10,061$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+148.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7218…4a76backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a69…5a45backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc05e…ffb9backed Yes0c9,754$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda9f…d5f7backed Yes0c9,390$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7f…ec46backed Yes1c9,369$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.76137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c9,190$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.954521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d02…446abacked Yes1c9,169$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf7…da04backed Yes1c9,026$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+79.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes0c9,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3712129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes0c8,980$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.691723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-52.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes1c8,917$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.456642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab80…5b18backed Yes0c8,682$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…8ffbbacked Yes1c8,341$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick8cpaid+79.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed6…4c6bbacked Yes0c8,333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c8,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes1c7,876$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.11833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0115…3c01backed Yes1c7,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+111.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32e…e3c2backed Yes0c6,953$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.811127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ec…925dbacked Yes1c6,880$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…0737backed Yes0c6,570$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes0c6,495$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.166920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92d9…355abacked Yes0c6,172$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb6…d4c9backed Yes1c6,005$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.13540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dda…81f4backed Yes1c5,665$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.02450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+181.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,501$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.182939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f31…f7ebbacked Yes0c5,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb710…fa70backed Yes0c5,260$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…4fe4backed Yes0c5,223$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x079d…053abacked Yes0c5,032$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+204.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf84b…2555backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x347f…df2abacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc90…db62backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.41838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe954…7eb7backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd596…c9fdbacked Yes0c4,750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b4f…2fb7backed Yes1c4,537$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+81.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9d2…3093backed Yes1c4,451$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.26120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…389bbacked Yes0c4,403$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a45…b82abacked Yes0c4,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x499f…6a91backed Yes0c4,046$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89b…b1fbbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6be…589ebacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+120.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab0…0d3cbacked Yes1c3,993$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+204.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f51…11d9backed Yes1c3,951$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+375.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6cb…0377backed Yes0c3,731$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d39…0b79backed Yes0c3,670$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ad…c852backed Yes0c3,527$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc8…63f3backed Yes0c3,377$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+183.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25fc…c6c3backed Yes0c3,043$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+220.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda08…2abdbacked Yes1c3,033$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes0c2,817$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.893135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb02…d4c8backed Yes1c2,754$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ee…e027backed Yes1c2,682$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd882…04a5backed Yes0c2,680$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid-25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddbb…4461backed Yes1c2,527$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d49…8e3ebacked Yes1c2,512$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c5…998bbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c2,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137627.6%21 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab7…8613backed Yes1c2,457$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+132.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.