World Politics · resolved market
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aeaddfa5c56f561a169d75df4670345bd9f4547c8ebcae6a32adc95831788e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,494,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,626,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,494,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 69c | 266,261$183,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,509.4 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…c9fdbacked No | 2c | 183,467$2,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,926.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 77c | 133,571$103,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,139.75 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 9c | 61,873$5,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,210.53 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 65c | 50,644$32,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,811.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 48,964$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,340.57 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…7dfbbacked Yes | 24c | 47,654$11,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,414.81 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 13c | 43,198$5,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,682.55 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 41,205$4,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,400.35 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…f0dabacked Yes | 37c | 40,599$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,598.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…08d2backed Yes | 14c | 40,016$5,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,592.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…9188backed Yes | 16c | 38,250$6,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,018.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…2792backed Yes | 9c | 37,251$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,900.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +187%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…171cbacked Yes | 14c | 36,241$5,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,211.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 33,888$5,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,583.66 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 8c | 31,855$2,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,148.85 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…14ccbacked Yes | 62c | 31,468$19,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,908.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 9c | 30,000$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…2cf5backed Yes | 24c | 29,427$6,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,428.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 24c | 28,684$6,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,772.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 49c | 28,533$14,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,412.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes | 17c | 26,967$4,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,286.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 26,908$8,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,953.53 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Yes | 15c | 26,825$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,782.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +114%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 46c | 26,342$12,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,298.51 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 53c | 25,596$13,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,523.53 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 32c | 25,527$8,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,351.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…16d4backed Yes | 38c | 24,359$9,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,146.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…cc39backed Yes | 34c | 24,214$8,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,080.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed Yes | 17c | 24,072$4,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,926.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…17e7backed Yes | 79c | 21,659$17,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,636.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…2d40backed Yes | 78c | 21,212$16,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,728.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 56c | 21,147$11,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,842.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…44babacked Yes | 29c | 21,085$6,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,029.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 9c | 20,619$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,819.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…6808backed Yes | 42c | 19,948$8,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,559.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab31…a051backed Yes | 25c | 19,722$4,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,837.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 53c | 19,564$10,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,144.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…60a7backed Yes | 19c | 18,195$3,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,662.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked No | 1c | 17,962$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 17,876$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 16,562$3,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,572.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 79c | 16,423$12,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…da9bbacked Yes | 79c | 16,375$12,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,512.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 17c | 16,331$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,624.55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 21c | 16,314$3,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,928.23 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 16c | 15,919$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,348.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 76c | 15,850$12,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.51 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…3e83backed Yes | 15c | 15,554$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,177.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 77c | 15,476$11,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.74 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 25c | 14,269$3,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,676.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…d848backed Yes | 12c | 14,024$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,273.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 49c | 12,843$6,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,612.89 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 11c | 12,618$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,268.56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 41c | 12,537$5,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,449.67 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…1c27backed Yes | 10c | 11,901$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,757.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…0b79backed No | 1c | 11,298$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…446abacked Yes | 8c | 11,183$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,272.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 15c | 11,170$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,461.1 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b71…9160backed Yes | 18c | 10,764$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,790.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…f18abacked Yes | 14c | 10,573$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,089.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 10c | 10,261$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.42 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…c009backed Yes | 31c | 10,223$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,068.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 3c | 10,123$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.32 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 20c | 10,108$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,108.11 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 64c | 10,074$6,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.32 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…9704backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…5a45backed Yes | 13c | 9,979$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,681.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,885$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,876.13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes | 47c | 9,884$4,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,235.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…8ffbbacked Yes | 10c | 9,870$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,880.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed Yes | 10c | 9,779$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,755.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 22c | 9,623$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,504.1 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5434…63cfbacked Yes | 51c | 9,522$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,672.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…bc42backed Yes | 14c | 9,467$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,116.02 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7747backed Yes | 16c | 9,421$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,920.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…d2a1backed Yes | 15c | 9,400$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,966.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…6cc5backed Yes | 23c | 9,378$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,189.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…1284backed Yes | 16c | 9,365$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,850.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…767dbacked Yes | 34c | 9,262$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,129.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab0…0d3cbacked Yes | 8c | 9,224$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,440.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…cc5cbacked Yes | 42c | 9,088$3,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 9,056$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +186.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9505…1707backed Yes | 7c | 8,694$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,069.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…2e37backed No | 75c | 8,687$6,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,494.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d978backed Yes | 20c | 8,686$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,962.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…c9e0backed Yes | 12c | 8,676$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,676.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +187.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…65c8backed Yes | 14c | 8,646$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,476.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +244.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 22c | 8,421$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,542.49 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…1b9dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,376$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +504.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,251$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,746.27 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 6c | 8,145$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,662.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 8,032$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,683.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…dfd2backed Yes | 19c | 7,848$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,381.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 62c | 7,602$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700.42 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 56c | 7,161$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,001.1 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…dad6backed Yes | 25c | 7,079$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,287.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 65c | 7,034$4,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,570.26 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…f538backed Yes | 24c | 6,983$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 11c | 6,908$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,169.41 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?this page
- Will George Simion win by 0–6%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 12–18%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 6–12%?No won
- Will George Simion win by over 18%?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?No won
- Will another candidate win?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.