World Politics · resolved market
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475d06b509d75bcaf237c2ccfd8f57df8e490ccf6d9bef628b357c4e07bc94be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,891,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,891,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 796 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 342,050$14,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,908.42 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…7dfbbacked Yes | 6c | 212,754$12,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,751.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…dff1backed Yes | 5c | 187,269$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 5c | 136,747$6,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,271.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2e…9704backed Yes | 5c | 128,684$6,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,161.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 114,488$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.58 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 5c | 113,798$6,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,127.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…626bbacked Yes | 2c | 113,324$2,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes | 10c | 111,620$10,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,949.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 26cpaid | +100%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…a596backed Yes | 0c | 104,599$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…8ffbbacked Yes | 3c | 84,017$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 8cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…5074backed Yes | 3c | 83,305$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cb…0377backed Yes | 3c | 78,296$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f1…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 73,810$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 5c | 71,802$3,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,458.72 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…e618backed Yes | 2c | 70,893$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 5c | 70,000$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,653.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 5c | 64,083$3,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab31…a051backed Yes | 10c | 60,529$5,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,889.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 8c | 59,038$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,968.01 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…da9bbacked Yes | 3c | 53,658$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…a17cbacked Yes | 4c | 52,130$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9e…6cc5backed Yes | 7c | 51,990$3,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,657.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…9188backed Yes | 7c | 49,653$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…1534backed Yes | 3c | 49,409$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9843…9c03backed Yes | 4c | 48,901$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…a143backed Yes | 4c | 48,790$1,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…171cbacked Yes | 4c | 45,645$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 7c | 45,298$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 5c | 44,064$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47da…b6e0backed Yes | 6c | 43,943$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +229.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…e08bbacked Yes | 5c | 40,841$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…493ebacked Yes | 6c | 40,771$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…0c89backed Yes | 6c | 35,737$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347f…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 35,099$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…ee74backed Yes | 9c | 34,626$3,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,271.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…b05bbacked Yes | 9c | 33,859$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b5…1438backed Yes | 7c | 33,456$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55de…455dbacked Yes | 1c | 31,471$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 6c | 31,083$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.84 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…cefdbacked Yes | 7c | 30,111$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…3d55backed Yes | 3c | 29,969$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…375cbacked Yes | 8c | 29,141$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…1284backed Yes | 6c | 29,039$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f0…7322backed Yes | 4c | 27,958$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +379.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 27,005$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.61 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…2cf5backed Yes | 9c | 26,739$2,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 7c | 25,590$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.4 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…44babacked Yes | 6c | 25,045$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 25,015$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed Yes | 7c | 24,760$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 23,241$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…edf4backed Yes | 2c | 21,150$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…0b1bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,677$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Yes | 7c | 20,262$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…cb20backed Yes | 5c | 20,000$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 19,536$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.38 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…f911backed Yes | 6c | 19,486$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…8cddbacked Yes | 4c | 19,270$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +315.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…22c9backed Yes | 6c | 18,660$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…55a6backed Yes | 5c | 18,202$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f3…715cbacked Yes | 4c | 18,100$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +169.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…69cfbacked Yes | 3c | 17,643$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.78 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…cc39backed Yes | 9c | 17,489$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…2f3ebacked Yes | 1c | 17,408$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc32…996bbacked Yes | 7c | 17,389$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 1c | 17,184$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 5c | 17,077$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.5 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…b82abacked Yes | 5c | 17,039$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.71 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…446abacked Yes | 5c | 16,975$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…d6c4backed Yes | 6c | 16,970$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…13e6backed Yes | 6c | 16,308$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…91b0backed Yes | 6c | 15,654$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 15,633$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 5c | 15,425$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 8c | 15,044$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.6 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…4252backed Yes | 6c | 14,956$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…c1cfbacked Yes | 4c | 14,899$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +911.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed Yes | 6c | 14,891$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7747backed Yes | 7c | 14,105$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…b957backed Yes | 7c | 14,017$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…07b9backed Yes | 6c | 13,833$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 5c | 13,707$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…01cfbacked Yes | 6c | 13,586$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…8994backed Yes | 5c | 13,320$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…c009backed Yes | 10c | 13,254$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 9c | 13,221$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6d63backed Yes | 5c | 12,851$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 7c | 12,850$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2daa…a350backed Yes | 7c | 12,651$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…7e35backed Yes | 8c | 12,543$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…8d41backed Yes | 2c | 12,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 5c | 11,999$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +103%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…3701backed Yes | 1c | 11,922$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 1c | 11,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…f18abacked Yes | 5c | 11,526$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab0…0d3cbacked Yes | 5c | 11,481$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…7f38backed Yes | 3c | 11,451$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…6ef7backed Yes | 6c | 11,369$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 3c | 11,325$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?this page
- Will George Simion win by 0–6%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 12–18%?No won
- Will George Simion win by 6–12%?No won
- Will George Simion win by over 18%?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%?No won
- Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.