Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe5033b27146a63f7c18a0879e113839b39695c3733f89acf4bf690a8741393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 31,116$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.68 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 15,566$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.82 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 12c | 13,600$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.19 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 13,263$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.07 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 13c | 13,143$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.97 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 12,630$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.99 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 7,000$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 18c | 6,185$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.59 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…1739backed Yes | 3c | 6,124$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.92 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 7c | 5,371$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.72 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 4c | 5,040$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.58 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,490$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.55 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 4,297$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 4,052$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 15c | 3,978$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.05 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,754$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.78 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 3,741$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.9 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 19c | 3,710$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.86 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 3,366$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.38 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 3,012$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,777$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 11c | 2,655$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.32 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 2,650$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.27 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 3c | 2,499$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 19c | 2,310$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.07 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 17c | 2,162$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.62 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 7c | 2,115$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,851$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.61 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,690$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,617$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bf…866fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,600$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 22c | 1,423$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,340$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 15c | 1,252$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 3c | 1,223$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,222$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.52 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 29c | 1,127$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 2c | 1,065$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 23c | 1,058$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,045$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,020$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.39 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…37e4backed Yes | 2c | 935.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 12c | 907.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 9c | 878.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 6c | 869.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 20c | 854.36$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…35e4backed Yes | 2c | 844.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 5c | 830$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 80c | 788.48$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 24c | 777.66$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e3…79ebbacked Yes | 11c | 774.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3263backed Yes | 34c | 756.38$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 14c | 743.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 9c | 619.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 7c | 601.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 3c | 595.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 575.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 7c | 567.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 9c | 535.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 13c | 530.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 18c | 529.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 4c | 496.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 5c | 476$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 11c | 449.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 17c | 433.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 21c | 424.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 19c | 421.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…8448backed Yes | 29c | 418.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…a6b4backed Yes | 10c | 407.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 398.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…5e83backed Yes | 15c | 393.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 27c | 366.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 11c | 364.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 25c | 362.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked No | 77c | 362.77$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked Yes | 11c | 340$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 30c | 329.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…c822backed Yes | 31c | 317.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 8c | 302.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 29c | 301.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…0562backed Yes | 18c | 299.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 35c | 287.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 27c | 280$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…a29abacked Yes | 7c | 278.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 274.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.