Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149da927f6d806d8678c21a2ab8d19b4632c0835f6fa34617f4584f3b5648fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 60,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 43,346$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 13,340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 10,564$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.74 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 8,298$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 5,710$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 7c | 5,490$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.08 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 4,055$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 3c | 3,788$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,552$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,372$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,153$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,868$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,520$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,496$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes | 4c | 957.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 2c | 815.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 7c | 601.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 2c | 575$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d53ebacked Yes | 2c | 417.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 5c | 409.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.