Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2e3c0fa60c6b5b8a507688e7ebb2301a813cd394d5c632fa34e2782af0cb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 14c | 10,641$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,106.57 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 9c | 9,843$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,953.59 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 75c | 9,040$6,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.71 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 40c | 8,826$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,281.72 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 16c | 8,114$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,806.96 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 68c | 6,751$4,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.01 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 70c | 6,462$4,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.66 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 38c | 4,850$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.29 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,054$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.86 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,410.22 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 77c | 3,884$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.09 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 9c | 3,879$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.44 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,841$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,516.49 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 69c | 3,643$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.3 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 75c | 3,625$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.01 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 4c | 3,496$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 3,489$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.4 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 3,425$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.51 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 10c | 3,417$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,069.2 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 7c | 3,381$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.71 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 47c | 3,365$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.57 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 29c | 3,150$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.14 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 55c | 3,133$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.9 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 30c | 2,953$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.04 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 20c | 2,585$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.11 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 2,563$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,122.48 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 80c | 2,263$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 16c | 2,154$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3263backed Yes | 28c | 1,872$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 31c | 1,816$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.28 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed No | 20c | 1,708$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 23c | 1,687$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.61 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 45c | 1,647$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.39 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,592$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.12 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 43c | 1,573$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 12c | 1,459$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.59 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 27c | 1,399$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.75 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 9c | 1,398$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 34c | 1,397$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 77c | 1,341$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.93 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 78c | 1,324$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.4 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.21 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 36c | 1,159$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 11c | 1,115$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,067$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.09 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…8dd4backed Yes | 71c | 1,061$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed No | 48c | 1,004$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.29 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 919.02$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.77 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 42c | 905.03$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.96 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 36c | 851.14$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.44 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 61c | 851.13$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.81 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 24c | 850$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.15 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…9b4bbacked Yes | 14c | 846.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 46c | 835.88$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.87 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 32c | 817.88$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 802.41$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 21c | 760.47$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 61c | 755.45$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 33c | 749.87$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.83 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 75c | 749.58$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 70c | 739.77$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 16c | 726.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked No | 18c | 718.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 3c | 698.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.92 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 13c | 689.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 655.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.03 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 77c | 650.04$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 69c | 642.34$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.94 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 67c | 591.95$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 15c | 583.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 29c | 580.11$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.21 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 29c | 550.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.14 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 28c | 500$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.5 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 21c | 490$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.33 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked No | 4c | 487.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…d59dbacked Yes | 72c | 451.94$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 65c | 438.87$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.35 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 11c | 437.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.16 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 30c | 427.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.75 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 13c | 420.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.22 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 76c | 409.64$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 78c | 395.85$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 63c | 386.82$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 32c | 376.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 38c | 356.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 28c | 355.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 38c | 350.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c6…6d71backed Yes | 26c | 349.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…359abacked Yes | 14c | 335.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e8…5fd0backed Yes | 27c | 332.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 61c | 328.77$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…0158backed Yes | 15c | 327.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +568.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 12c | 327.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 10c | 323.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.93 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 78c | 311.71$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 40c | 300.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.11 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.