TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes0c21,085$31 inLost-$30.911922.1%4 W · 188 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c17,456$107 inLost-$107.465325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes0c12,683$13 inLost-$12.68290%0 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c11,570$39 inLost-$38.551,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c10,000$12 inLost-$122401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$106714.9%10 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes0c4,917$20 inLost-$208413.1%11 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-75.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes3c3,975$122 inLost-$122.1348310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…929fbacked Yes2c2,384$50 inLost-$503321.2%7 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes0c2,377$12 inLost-$11.513429.4%10 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes1c2,100$17 inLost-$16.5734714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Yes1c2,040$31 inLost-$30.544022.5%9 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost-$10053817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes1c1,808$20 inLost-$203611.1%4 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes1c1,778$15 inLost-$1528912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes2c1,515$25 inLost-$24.837613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes4c1,183$44 inLost-$43.9513011.5%15 W · 115 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f2…7db1backed Yes1c999.99$13 inLost-$1310016%16 W · 84 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c916$10 inLost-$10.082,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19af…dd83backed Yes1c831.19$10 inLost-$106320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes5c777$39 inLost-$38.8529331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x767c…ca6abacked Yes1c769.48$10 inLost-$101414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c435.76$22 inLost-$21.792,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e61…a88abacked Yes4c250$10 inLost-$102222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…9f06backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.