Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbec7743c9f710e9064993da1f4cc16e6b8d68f3c7feccba3f148dbcfe58655ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 18,709$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.74 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,410$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,598$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 5,344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 4,930$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 2c | 4,721$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 3,814$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,234$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,379$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 4c | 2,309$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,190$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 2,008$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 2,005$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,750$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,639$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,420$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,353$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 1,334$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 8c | 1,261$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,162$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 2c | 1,113$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 6c | 1,082$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,068$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 6c | 797.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 1c | 795.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 782.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 2c | 775.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Yes | 1c | 755.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 2c | 752.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 3c | 741.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 6c | 734.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked Yes | 3c | 716.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…3c24backed Yes | 2c | 687.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 10c | 680.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 634.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 4c | 617.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 6c | 591.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 5c | 588.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 539.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…01e0backed Yes | 4c | 445.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3263backed Yes | 8c | 410.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 401.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 3c | 399.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d53ebacked Yes | 6c | 394.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 5c | 331.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 4c | 316.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 9c | 310.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 5c | 304.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 295.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…d10bbacked Yes | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 239.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 20c | 201.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…9f06backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.