Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3390747097e93c1712c6ad5c6580684d6ff090a910df349c6ecb98d0c4c070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $471,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 17c | 20,035$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.06 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 7c | 12,398$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.08 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 26c | 10,814$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 7c | 9,712$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 9,216$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.23 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 10c | 8,932$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.43 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 16c | 8,703$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.17 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 8,500$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.4 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,265$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.93 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 15c | 7,828$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.62 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 10c | 7,581$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.47 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 10c | 7,567$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.89 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 7,506$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.89 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 18c | 7,202$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.24 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 5,578$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.93 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 10c | 5,338$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.57 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 12c | 5,332$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.49 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 5,285$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.55 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 5,056$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.98 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 20c | 4,500$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.1 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 4c | 4,137$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 3,583$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,530$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.58 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…41a9backed Yes | 3c | 3,400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +80%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 13c | 3,190$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.67 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3263backed Yes | 17c | 3,065$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 3,058$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 17c | 2,938$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.54 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 13c | 2,632$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,316$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.24 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 12c | 2,285$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.31 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 2,272$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.57 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 15c | 2,230$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.63 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,092$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…231cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,056$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 33c | 2,048$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 1,836$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,646$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,590$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.18 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 5c | 1,539$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,461$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed Yes | 6c | 1,372$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,317$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 21c | 1,307$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.11 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 32c | 1,277$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.36 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,205$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 14c | 1,176$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 1,117$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 1,104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 9c | 1,079$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 1,071$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed No | 72c | 1,000$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 13c | 929.49$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 24c | 923.75$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c6…2c07backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 11c | 841.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 12c | 818.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 19c | 784.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 22c | 780.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 11c | 780.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 16c | 775.86$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 18c | 733.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…2facbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 8c | 699.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 6c | 627.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 605.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b8…718fbacked Yes | 18c | 599.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 27c | 594.61$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 33c | 592.58$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 14c | 589.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 6c | 579.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 20c | 565.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…49b5backed Yes | 27c | 550$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 18c | 549.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…83b1backed Yes | 39c | 533.95$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 12c | 510.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 8c | 510$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 4c | 501.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 22c | 492.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 16c | 471.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +241.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 455.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 12c | 449.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 20c | 439.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 12c | 430.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048b…a02bbacked Yes | 24c | 413.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 11c | 404.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 11c | 399.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 14c | 391.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 34c | 355.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.