Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265293e363cb6c04c523e31674869a80288d77e092d098965401ac5210bcd42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 53,905$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.57 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 6c | 18,891$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.45 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 14,246$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 13,498$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.68 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 5c | 12,906$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.35 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 2c | 9,716$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,554$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.41 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 7,469$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.75 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30bf…866fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,805$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,426$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.28 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,924$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 3,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 7c | 3,471$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,384$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.87 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 2c | 3,079$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 4c | 3,028$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 8c | 2,890$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.18 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 2,712$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,699$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 2,576$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 2,454$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,255$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 8c | 2,172$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 1c | 2,090$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 13c | 1,892$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,882$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 1,878$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,520$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 3c | 1,390$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,339$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 16c | 1,284$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 10c | 987.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 6c | 986.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 5c | 875.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 15c | 772.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.65 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…83b1backed Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 6c | 699.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 6c | 670.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes | 5c | 587.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 555$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 6c | 548.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 12c | 530$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 17c | 524.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 8c | 518.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 2c | 513.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e8…5fd0backed Yes | 17c | 473.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 5c | 454.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 8c | 432.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 12c | 408.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 4c | 376.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 6c | 350.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 10c | 326.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 306.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 6c | 300.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…a6b4backed Yes | 15c | 274.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 8c | 255.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 6c | 219.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 6c | 208.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 7c | 188.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…1052backed Yes | 12c | 187.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 12c | 183.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 12c | 165.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 12c | 158.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…f3aebacked Yes | 26c | 152.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…2facbacked Yes | 17c | 144.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31c…0bd6backed Yes | 13c | 134.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 87 | 23%20 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…09e4backed Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…d2d9backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441b…2dfabacked Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 26c | 101.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…7b9cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 11c | 95.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…adeabacked Yes | 22c | 83.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb9…190dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…46b7backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…ad58backed No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…6a6fbacked No | 80c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 390–404 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 315–329 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–464 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 465–479 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 480–494 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 495–509 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.