World Politics · resolved market
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87822b3d4ccba1835d698354b01c050b55f20c5f34b14908bff4ea5a6d58af4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,416,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,280,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,416,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,390 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Yes | 64c | 636,235$404,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231,992.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…f646backed No | 25c | 635,488$156,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156,491.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 2c | 630,069$14,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,761.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 68c | 527,574$358,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169,558.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 77c | 510,940$393,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117,292.31 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked Yes | 77c | 505,096$389,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116,035.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 29c | 492,345$144,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144,462.67 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 78c | 477,781$372,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104,991.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 7c | 301,922$19,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,882.2 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a93ebacked Yes | 79c | 283,423$224,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,385.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Yes | 75c | 244,819$182,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,269.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed No | 36c | 244,262$87,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,484.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed No | 19c | 234,233$44,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,156.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…aa0dbacked Yes | 77c | 229,483$176,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,735.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 74c | 220,071$163,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,934.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 59c | 163,229$96,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,551.41 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 65c | 161,839$105,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,683.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 72c | 161,108$116,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,703.71 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 67c | 135,990$91,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,781.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 74c | 133,987$98,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,211.76 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes | 77c | 125,325$96,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,659.69 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed No | 26c | 119,519$31,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,598.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 77c | 118,291$90,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,615.36 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd3…7b26backed Yes | 34c | 117,979$39,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,016.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 68c | 115,676$78,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,746.6 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…144abacked Yes | 60c | 115,198$69,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,712.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…78ddbacked No | 39c | 114,185$44,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,541.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed Yes | 79c | 110,434$86,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,599.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 45c | 107,396$48,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,343.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 75c | 106,264$79,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,354.88 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 68c | 104,666$71,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,285.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacd…c1ebbacked No | 23c | 100,792$23,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,397.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 68c | 98,160$66,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,526.78 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…f53ebacked No | 21c | 95,750$19,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,747.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…61fbbacked Yes | 51c | 93,485$47,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,887.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…4e00backed Yes | 80c | 92,044$73,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,719.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…232abacked No | 36c | 91,910$33,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,206.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked Yes | 65c | 91,231$59,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,649.99 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 77c | 89,250$69,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,197.24 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 3c | 88,954$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f5…79ffbacked No | 15c | 85,294$12,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,520.38 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 72c | 84,557$60,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,792.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 51c | 84,089$42,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,365.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…73c6backed No | 72c | 84,000$60,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,480 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…2afabacked Yes | 28c | 84,000$23,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabb…c97dbacked No | 24c | 83,315$19,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,787.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 82,544$32,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,110.17 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 27c | 80,302$21,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,681.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f0cbbacked Yes | 67c | 80,082$53,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,540.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Yes | 63c | 77,994$49,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,538.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0b…8f35backed No | 1c | 75,815$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…2bb5backed Yes | 56c | 75,529$42,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,217.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 59c | 75,516$44,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,882.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked No | 41c | 73,368$30,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,418 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 71c | 71,294$50,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,427.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 58c | 68,140$39,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,506.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 73c | 68,005$49,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,657.98 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 21c | 66,173$13,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,565.78 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 74c | 65,721$48,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,861.4 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…c479backed Yes | 78c | 65,096$51,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,050.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 77c | 64,696$49,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,801.42 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…b048backed No | 21c | 64,134$13,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,692.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 8c | 63,936$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,109.39 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 59c | 63,125$37,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,904.19 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 59c | 63,046$37,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,553.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes | 71c | 63,000$44,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,319.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 78c | 61,328$47,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,637.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 30c | 60,030$17,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,783.75 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…a6cbbacked No | 18c | 58,770$10,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,415 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…77d6backed Yes | 57c | 58,617$33,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,497.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 21c | 58,468$12,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,188.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…5cb4backed Yes | 14c | 57,804$8,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,791.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +260.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 76c | 57,602$43,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,818.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55d…0c54backed No | 15c | 57,116$8,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,410.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…bc4fbacked No | 52c | 56,402$29,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,093.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 76c | 55,915$42,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,444.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6151backed No | 26c | 53,232$13,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,790.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…48d9backed Yes | 69c | 53,064$36,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,561.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 59c | 53,005$31,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,970.44 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…cd3bbacked Yes | 74c | 52,962$39,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,831.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…3584backed Yes | 38c | 52,621$19,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,865.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebe…de8bbacked Yes | 58c | 51,567$29,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,818.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 79c | 51,529$40,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,942.16 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…d915backed Yes | 79c | 50,889$40,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,877.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 79c | 50,699$39,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,786.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…1a25backed Yes | 78c | 47,637$37,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,315.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 76c | 47,554$36,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,426.46 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes | 76c | 46,712$35,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,024.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 79c | 46,441$36,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,756.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 67c | 46,069$30,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,274.88 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…7cf5backed No | 23c | 46,005$10,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,722.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 66c | 45,958$30,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,741.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 77c | 44,601$34,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,261.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…5716backed Yes | 68c | 44,540$30,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,252.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 72c | 43,580$31,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,194.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +665.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 76c | 42,781$32,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,290.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 17c | 42,762$7,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,269.47 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…4f25backed No | 25c | 42,194$10,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,372.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed No | 15c | 41,951$6,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,231.71 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 38c | 41,500$15,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,899.1 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?this page
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.