World Politics · resolved market
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244c75b2c6095b2e67699c10d0c6548d757d58a1ffea32ad6882c9a389803bd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,376,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,045,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,376,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 20c | 895,180$176,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,988.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.1wins | -0.47per pick | 54cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 73c | 716,800$524,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192,595.8 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked No | 78c | 693,077$540,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152,478.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…9972backed Yes | 9c | 668,029$57,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,155.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61da…8877backed Yes | 30c | 663,320$199,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199,236.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2f…8baebacked No | 76c | 653,993$500,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153,723.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 69c | 595,785$411,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184,042.49 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 578,328$14,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,359.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 76c | 562,004$425,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136,017.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…9d9cbacked Yes | 21c | 531,965$113,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113,465.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…820dbacked Yes | 28c | 526,802$149,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149,019.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 76c | 478,794$363,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,148.72 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…bc4fbacked Yes | 30c | 436,313$132,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132,878.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 24c | 434,756$106,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106,424.45 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 9c | 416,571$38,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,997.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d7…9d1cbacked No | 77c | 364,608$280,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,871.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…9619backed Yes | 23c | 361,800$81,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,521.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…7028backed No | 80c | 340,662$271,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,791.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f4f1backed No | 75c | 325,857$243,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,711.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 65c | 313,720$205,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,355.01 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Yes | 39c | 297,938$117,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117,511.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13e…6b92backed Yes | 25c | 283,147$71,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,289.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…78f4backed Yes | 11c | 280,728$30,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,067.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…8041backed Yes | 4c | 269,060$11,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,064.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af4…337abacked Yes | 27c | 255,690$68,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,881 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…0eccbacked Yes | 19c | 250,000$48,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,599.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…cf3abacked Yes | 26c | 245,578$63,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,070.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 11c | 241,744$25,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,452.36 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 77c | 237,174$181,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,629.24 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 76c | 228,239$174,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,098.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…c262backed Yes | 3c | 227,881$5,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,974.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60db…59cbbacked Yes | 1c | 227,042$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x446c…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 222,081$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 74c | 219,768$162,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,518.9 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 7c | 218,931$15,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,945.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…b7bdbacked Yes | 23c | 208,592$48,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,096.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…7067backed Yes | 23c | 206,314$46,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,569 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…30f5backed Yes | 43c | 205,730$89,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,007.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 75c | 204,158$154,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,056.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…041ebacked Yes | 7c | 191,753$13,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,879.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 74c | 186,433$137,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,246.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c0…8a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 184,146$23,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,575.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 16c | 179,591$29,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,601.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 63c | 179,191$112,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,457.5 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec7…f646backed Yes | 36c | 174,436$62,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,637.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 28c | 166,025$47,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,089.47 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…a68bbacked Yes | 5c | 157,863$8,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,096.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 72c | 157,033$113,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,494.07 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…78ddbacked Yes | 37c | 156,000$57,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,349.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked No | 79c | 153,004$121,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,770.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 27c | 152,903$40,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,674.47 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 68c | 150,937$102,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,314.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…4982backed Yes | 17c | 150,157$25,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,095.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked Yes | 18c | 149,005$27,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,099.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 79c | 146,496$115,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,586.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…13fcbacked Yes | 22c | 143,981$31,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,241.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +336%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…c9d1backed Yes | 14c | 142,269$19,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,872.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 51c | 139,155$71,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,640.86 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Yes | 19c | 138,325$26,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,084.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f0cbbacked No | 73c | 136,947$99,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,588.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0337…d253backed Yes | 23c | 136,623$30,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,961.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…d915backed No | 77c | 131,849$102,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,819.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7783…f818backed Yes | 30c | 130,820$39,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,722.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…144abacked No | 61c | 130,717$80,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,487.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 78c | 128,920$101,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,721.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 78c | 127,238$98,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,571.76 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…3b86backed Yes | 20c | 122,213$24,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,175.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…7921backed No | 76c | 121,788$92,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,434.81 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…5f1cbacked Yes | 21c | 121,575$24,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,959.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa737…29c8backed Yes | 29c | 121,480$35,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,492.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9921backed Yes | 22c | 121,039$26,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,615.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 120,692$34,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,098.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…5312backed Yes | 34c | 120,184$40,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,286.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 2c | 117,388$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…4673backed Yes | 1c | 114,353$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Yes | 34c | 111,485$38,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,097.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…533bbacked Yes | 20c | 111,111$22,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,999.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Yes | 49c | 109,897$53,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,874.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fa…8a55backed No | 76c | 109,269$82,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,345.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Yes | 35c | 109,109$38,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,377.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 1c | 109,032$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.86 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…0ec9backed Yes | 32c | 107,663$34,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,148.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked No | 75c | 105,111$78,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,146.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 104,597$6,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,865.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 75c | 101,826$76,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,746.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed Yes | 67c | 100,356$66,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,881.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa38f…a7efbacked Yes | 3c | 100,141$2,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,845.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…bbd5backed Yes | 27c | 100,003$27,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,351.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…4ed3backed Yes | 21c | 100,000$20,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,797.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…1850backed Yes | 16c | 99,684$15,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,954.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…ba36backed Yes | 65c | 98,533$64,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,046.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…43f2backed No | 35c | 98,533$34,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,046.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222e…79a0backed Yes | 17c | 97,509$16,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,915.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683c…6517backed Yes | 15c | 97,045$14,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,273.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 73c | 94,342$69,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,167 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…b75ebacked Yes | 21c | 94,165$20,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,078.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fd…74d4backed Yes | 25c | 93,583$23,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,553.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 93,581$71,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,283.93 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked No | 66c | 93,179$61,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,731.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…af39backed No | 75c | 92,914$69,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,478.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?this page
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.