World Politics · resolved market
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489028f20a1a71e9e882b0e72ba2675456f6afa5f2df0839fbdc23ff2e4b8709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,148,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,996,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,148,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 289,940$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.05 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 175,145$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.92 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 170,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes | 0c | 95,273$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…d7a6backed Yes | 0c | 45,067$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes | 1c | 40,502$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…bbe2backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 30,310$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,926$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb4…b269backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ab…7c4abacked Yes | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…63ebbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…b157backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…9a33backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…5ffcbacked Yes | 0c | 24,133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…0595backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd4…42f5backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…a7a1backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…258dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…c2d3backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…7779backed Yes | 0c | 23,975$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39f…1de3backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…8e5cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…7722backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965a…98b1backed Yes | 0c | 21,695$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…9eaabacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 4c | 20,266$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…3f73backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…0cc3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 19,775$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 17,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…ef32backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…22febacked Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…a0b9backed Yes | 0c | 15,433$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 2c | 13,315$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1278…6b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…edbfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…757fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 9,816$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…99bfbacked Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…aac1backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…ee5cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,990$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…ad4cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,820$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…71f2backed Yes | 0c | 8,120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…560bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,970$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9213…4d1ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,690$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1198…5929backed Yes | 0c | 7,645$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…cc45backed Yes | 0c | 7,187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…cbc1backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…6011backed Yes | 0c | 6,430$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5228…e0e9backed Yes | 0c | 6,195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…0ee8backed Yes | 0c | 5,690$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7376…3eaebacked Yes | 0c | 5,630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…0f2cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…4a88backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 5c | 5,222$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.57 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 0c | 5,052$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…f3b1backed Yes | 1c | 5,042$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…7844backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…5621backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…0a90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…ed59backed Yes | 1c | 4,995$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 3c | 3,336$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 2,550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 1,211$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 793.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 4c | 640.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 28c | 48.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister?this page
- Will Chrystia Freeland be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
- Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes won
- Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.