World Politics · resolved market
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc313b9d1136eada02794b4299fa04bab53da830001d73966fb9ca1e7ffbad5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,471,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $768,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,471,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 671 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 57,415$3,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,561.63 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…2658backed Yes | 9c | 46,952$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,148.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 38,575$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.92 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 7c | 34,270$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 21,568$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…e0f9backed Yes | 10c | 17,889$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…fc05backed Yes | 11c | 17,219$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 16,605$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.13 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 9c | 16,400$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.48 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 15,466$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.37 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…87babacked Yes | 7c | 12,045$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 10c | 10,050$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.29 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…f2cabacked Yes | 10c | 10,015$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 6c | 9,950$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.13 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 7c | 9,494$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.93 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 6c | 9,030$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 8,848$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.26 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 8c | 8,500$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.42 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed Yes | 8c | 8,277$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Yes | 10c | 8,210$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 7,658$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.53 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 7c | 6,671$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…22c8backed Yes | 6c | 6,411$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe370…d80abacked Yes | 0c | 6,389$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…dd43backed Yes | 7c | 6,103$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 6,050$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +480.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…f46dbacked Yes | 10c | 6,039$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Yes | 8c | 6,034$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 8c | 6,030$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed Yes | 10c | 5,879$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…40e0backed Yes | 9c | 5,680$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 9c | 5,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 8c | 5,564$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,472$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.8 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…cbadbacked Yes | 8c | 5,453$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,229$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,216$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.33 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…005ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,098$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 5,094$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.36 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8881…c55cbacked Yes | 10c | 5,034$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ff…6478backed Yes | 9c | 5,011$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…2cc7backed Yes | 9c | 5,007$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…1183backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 10c | 4,864$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4de…4653backed Yes | 10c | 4,647$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Yes | 9c | 4,582$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…cb86backed Yes | 6c | 4,512$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3faf…685ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,447$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…3d90backed Yes | 10c | 4,430$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 9c | 4,385$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…b297backed Yes | 9c | 4,313$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 8c | 4,302$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.14 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.5 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…3040backed Yes | 10c | 3,986$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6db…a8cdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,984$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +519.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…b03ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,961$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 9c | 3,959$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…8e11backed Yes | 11c | 3,930$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 9c | 3,914$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.73 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…5aaabacked Yes | 8c | 3,901$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…62b1backed Yes | 0c | 3,855$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,847$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed Yes | 5c | 3,762$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e78…bc8dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,672$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,485$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…40c3backed Yes | 4c | 3,401$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 9c | 3,355$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 9c | 3,246$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…79e5backed Yes | 9c | 3,209$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes | 10c | 3,174$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,147$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…7a63backed Yes | 8c | 3,120$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 10c | 3,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1,772.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…093dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,063$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9f…75e2backed Yes | 11c | 3,044$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 9c | 3,018$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 9c | 2,869$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3f…4b41backed Yes | 9c | 2,458$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,430$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…d05abacked Yes | 9c | 2,391$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,337$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…dccdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,318$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,245$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…db59backed Yes | 9c | 2,216$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 9c | 2,164$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…c8cfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,151$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 5c | 2,143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes | 9c | 2,123$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…bfacbacked Yes | 10c | 2,096$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b92…062abacked Yes | 7c | 2,090$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 5c | 2,059$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 7c | 2,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1f…0720backed Yes | 8c | 2,031$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc93…c20abacked Yes | 10c | 2,019$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c83…21e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +1,983.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.