World Politics · resolved market
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf94e0a29a7c5f810c79be85579bcb7f684d8dc12f660185a970c564fe2b1f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,294,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $746,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,294,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde83…8b00backed Yes | 8c | 215,845$16,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,503.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 168,182$10,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,411.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…b4e0backed Yes | 4c | 56,903$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 52,219$2,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,810.75 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed Yes | 7c | 48,407$3,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 37,873$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.56 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 8c | 19,142$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.95 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…1faabacked Yes | 11c | 12,148$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…b817backed Yes | 7c | 10,678$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 7c | 10,156$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 7c | 9,918$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…fc05backed Yes | 7c | 8,713$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…5fd7backed Yes | 8c | 8,234$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 7,731$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.12 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 7c | 7,261$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0672…25cebacked Yes | 8c | 6,593$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 7c | 5,849$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.31 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…01e6backed Yes | 6c | 5,011$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ea…c102backed Yes | 6c | 4,950$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd8…4050backed Yes | 8c | 4,949$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,504$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 4,463$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae3…1540backed Yes | 8c | 4,453$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes | 6c | 4,373$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,272$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.08 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…7a12backed Yes | 7c | 4,096$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 7c | 3,930$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 9c | 3,840$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…08cebacked Yes | 6c | 3,700$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 6c | 3,582$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.91 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…5e92backed Yes | 7c | 3,496$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 6c | 3,400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 3,349$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.23 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e21…7c8abacked Yes | 6c | 3,289$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,142$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.06 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…147abacked Yes | 7c | 3,137$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…22c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,046$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…0ae3backed Yes | 7c | 2,902$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 7c | 2,820$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…c788backed Yes | 7c | 2,749$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 7c | 2,639$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +2,583.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 7c | 2,624$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 8c | 2,516$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…a56fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,162$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…43ddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,964$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2de…0a35backed Yes | 3c | 1,921$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…54f6backed Yes | 5c | 1,861$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…4a55backed Yes | 6c | 1,819$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 6c | 1,751$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ab37backed Yes | 7c | 1,719$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 8c | 1,676$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b4…e432backed Yes | 6c | 1,617$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed Yes | 5c | 1,609$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 11c | 1,574$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf14…6b86backed Yes | 6c | 1,563$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,547$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 7c | 1,546$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 7c | 1,542$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,474$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…e861backed Yes | 6c | 1,394$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,375$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…fbccbacked Yes | 10c | 1,363$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +1,448.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…dd8fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,352$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…093dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,336$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9128…a8f6backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…3c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,266$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…40e0backed Yes | 8c | 1,233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…5c7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…7effbacked Yes | 6c | 1,196$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,192$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4de…4653backed Yes | 7c | 1,191$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…0961backed Yes | 6c | 1,171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb265…a161backed Yes | 9c | 1,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…2efdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,165$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914c…cdc3backed Yes | 8c | 1,144$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…92bebacked Yes | 2c | 1,129$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…1289backed Yes | 9c | 1,125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 7c | 1,115$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…ba22backed Yes | 7c | 1,076$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +2,452.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,033$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,027$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 8c | 1,015$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…ce3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,011$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…3e3cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,005$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…380bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…d465backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…adfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…73dbbacked Yes | 6c | 992.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +1,540.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 5c | 954.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…3f99backed Yes | 6c | 934.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd6…6b71backed Yes | 5c | 924.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.