World Politics · resolved market
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab814a91628c1ba02720670c334d3d25a9414adca1e74928c6db3f077257219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $677,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $677,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 1c | 80,161$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.25 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 75,990$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.48 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…10a0backed Yes | 2c | 28,950$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…0b30backed Yes | 2c | 28,213$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 16,638$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 13,198$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 13,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…e846backed Yes | 1c | 12,944$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…ecbcbacked Yes | 1c | 10,537$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 1c | 9,999$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d7…58b3backed Yes | 1c | 8,517$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 1c | 7,905$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +886%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dd8bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,509$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 1c | 6,143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 2c | 5,651$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 2cpaid | +1,456%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…e9b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,444$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 4,730$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,630$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 1c | 4,201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 1c | 3,960$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…5c09backed Yes | 1c | 3,848$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 1c | 3,555$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…1d75backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 3,221$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 3,158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 102 | 9.8%10 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +116%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…43ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,079$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,985$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 2,961$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 1c | 2,836$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…5360backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,769$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 2c | 2,645$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,641$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e7…d258backed Yes | 1c | 2,587$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…84b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,478$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…3f52backed Yes | 1c | 2,295$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 1c | 2,268$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…d465backed Yes | 1c | 2,259$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa567…71bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…2652backed Yes | 2c | 2,147$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…fa46backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,905$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…1461backed Yes | 1c | 1,841$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617e…3a62backed Yes | 1c | 1,788$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 1c | 1,488$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 1c | 1,413$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…f2e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,367$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +545.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…63d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…086dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…1343backed Yes | 2c | 1,212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 1c | 1,206$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…e861backed Yes | 1c | 1,180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x826c…1886backed Yes | 2c | 1,044$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…a804backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +4,359.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…fb9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes | 1c | 881.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…1509backed Yes | 1c | 707.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked Yes | 1c | 678.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…2ab1backed Yes | 2c | 655.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…7f81backed Yes | 2c | 644.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?this page
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.