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World Politics · resolved market

Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,415,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$872,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,415,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2b…b40cbacked No0c55,473$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c35,829$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,333.496883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6b…68eebacked No0c31,628$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes1c28,766$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,549.36540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+2,583.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c23,925$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,733.45132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes2c22,373$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,935.071910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+365.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…9d19backed Yes1c21,223$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,973.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+1,386.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes2c20,794$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,472.131233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+647.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes1c19,880$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,587.364524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c18,849$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,768.124521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes2c17,316$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,991.913525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0931…2edebacked Yes1c16,665$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,416.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+3,246.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d3…a6c6backed Yes1c13,500$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,426.31837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+2,905.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,000$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,947.914121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4c…ec0cbacked Yes2c10,764$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,504.11100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,040%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2225…6725backed Yes3c10,578$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,297.531100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,677.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No0c10,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2467…a8dbbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes1c10,000$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,919.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+1,107.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes1c9,310$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,250.6175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+816.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed Yes3c8,546$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,250.081163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+259.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes1c8,478$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,432.262711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes3c8,113$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,901.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+480.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes21c8,097$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,397.633614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b74…778cbacked Yes1c7,695$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,645.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+7,599.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes2c7,500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350.4910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Yes1c7,491$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,396.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+3,884.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae78…f27fbacked Yes3c6,169$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,972.751100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,047.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4de8…76babacked Yes2c5,877$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,757.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+1,535.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes2c5,716$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,607.52214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+150.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c2…73dbbacked Yes1c5,580$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,536.77825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+1,540.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes76c5,519$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.114250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e8…0819backed Yes3c5,302$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,164.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+454.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes2c5,224$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.71812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+553%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes2c5,217$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,103.993930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes0c5,116$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,091.313221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+622.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,109$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,056.791,43710.2%147 W · 1,290 L-4.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144c…e424backed Yes0c5,076$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,051.591717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+1,129.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes2c5,041$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,952.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+1,045.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes1c5,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.981020%2 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+933.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3c…1923backed Yes2c4,822$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.141100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,363.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c4,805$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,739.151,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed Yes1c4,681$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,630.96520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+1,772.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes1c4,668$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,618.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+1,456%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…9ca8backed Yes2c4,571$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,492.111100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+5,708.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes2c4,518$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.39911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+402%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c4,466$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.881029.8%10 W · 92 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+116%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…62a1backed Yes2c4,436$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,335.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+665.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd639…6b24backed Yes2c4,256$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.5250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,049.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes1c4,185$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,142.922817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+285.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes1c4,139$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.393119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65d6…80fbbacked Yes1c4,048$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,991.57933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+785.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf759…0221backed Yes1c3,875$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,847.31650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+2,293.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes1c3,806$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,752.983221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b2…a51abacked Yes1c3,678$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.74560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+2,046.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1494…bf28backed Yes1c3,635$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,612.791100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+16,421.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…cdb3backed Yes1c3,589$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,568.181100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+16,886.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92e0…54d7backed Yes1c3,554$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.221100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,285%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c83…21e9backed Yes1c3,500$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,457.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+1,983.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes1c3,489$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,443.481225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+562.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…63aabacked Yes1c3,464$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+3,095%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes1c3,305$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.69650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1,808.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd187…399cbacked Yes1c3,258$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick2cpaid+5,329.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes1c3,193$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,157.526322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd29f…db90backed Yes3c3,170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.421100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,697.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes1c3,000$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,981.5912630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes1c3,000$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.98714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+2,757.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Yes1c2,725$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+2,170.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes1c2,722$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.81175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+400.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes1c2,717$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.841131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e3…e78dbacked Yes2c2,669$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.37812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+567.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c4…d3e3backed Yes2c2,636$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.15450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+1,292.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c10…6747backed Yes2c2,615$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+2,079.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9e…eb20backed Yes2c2,567$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.62333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+1,279.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b8…b2b5backed Yes2c2,510$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,455.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+1,510.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ff2…ba22backed Yes2c2,481$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,432.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+2,452.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd969…5660backed Yes1c2,409$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+3,915.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733e…fbccbacked Yes1c2,323$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.99616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+1,448.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe713…afe7backed Yes1c2,204$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.06540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+1,426.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3be8…f1a8backed Yes2c2,171$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.391100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,157.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8945…82a9backed Yes1c2,143$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.861100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+7,042.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes2c2,000$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.251020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+574.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes1c1,944$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.141421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+1,049.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes2c1,944$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.63214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes1c1,942$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.543638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+340%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No12c1,934$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.822634.6%9 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick8cpaid+854.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes2c1,925$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.33119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+289%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes1c1,884$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.62137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+886%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes2c1,860$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.291612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+299.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb1b5…dcc5backed Yes1c1,818$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,798.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+4,545.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes2c1,792$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.568337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaced…c771backed Yes1c1,673$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.21616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+1,759.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7caa…0a00backed Yes2c1,377$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+1,047.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf3…b1c6backed Yes2c1,369$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+2,181.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb017…7b1abacked Yes2c1,332$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.921100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+6,559.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1685…a369backed Yes2c1,272$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+748.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57d…b96dbacked Yes1c1,262$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+4,105.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be3…b164backed Yes1c1,250$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2351100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+8,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf502…26e8backed Yes2c1,242$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.851414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+375.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…e519backed Yes2c1,234$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1,223.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.