World Politics · resolved market
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d095e53627bf3991ec7d7259f5d9db121945d343bf7d9d79e9aafef3a0d6924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $874,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $874,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 1c | 68,987$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.32 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 67,970$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 55,880$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 55,752$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.21 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 23,025$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 22,997$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67e…ca0dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,483$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…5a28backed Yes | 0c | 16,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1404…596cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,871$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,092$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 0c | 11,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 0c | 11,172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 0c | 10,203$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 1c | 9,462$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 1c | 8,765$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 8,260$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…2b19backed Yes | 1c | 8,151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…8288backed Yes | 0c | 7,077$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 1c | 6,677$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6d…3435backed Yes | 2c | 6,349$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…9dd3backed Yes | 1c | 5,903$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 5,030$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 1c | 4,683$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,487$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b58…db59backed Yes | 1c | 4,395$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…3007backed Yes | 2c | 4,302$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…1343backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…fbccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +1,448.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b6…e2b8backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…1461backed Yes | 0c | 3,509$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…a7c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,434$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…0860backed Yes | 0c | 3,372$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…f2e2backed Yes | 0c | 3,345$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +545.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes | 1c | 3,328$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 3,166$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…63aabacked Yes | 1c | 2,953$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +3,095%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,845$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…7f81backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 1c | 2,249$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…c5d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…5833backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…d66ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +574.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…4a43backed Yes | 1c | 1,761$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,754$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +1,049.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,418$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 1c | 1,165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.