World Politics · resolved market
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2f2ff896c1c43703671bb7e4bea21f3fdae0ad2ca2dda1afd712d6ac99b2221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $942,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $942,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 62,620$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.45 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 56,194$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.6 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…093dbacked Yes | 2c | 40,746$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…dd43backed Yes | 2c | 30,772$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 17,466$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 17,361$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 16,720$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 2c | 15,240$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.41 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 14,721$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5755…b510backed Yes | 2c | 14,112$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes | 2c | 11,189$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 2c | 9,551$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes | 2c | 9,119$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +933.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 8,837$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 8,159$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,770$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 7,673$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…fbccbacked Yes | 4c | 7,517$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +1,448.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 2c | 7,442$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,209$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 6,997$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…59f4backed Yes | 2c | 6,799$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 2c | 6,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 1c | 5,815$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 2c | 5,627$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe592…029fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1,107.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…0569backed Yes | 2c | 4,865$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ba…2272backed Yes | 2c | 4,728$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 1c | 4,616$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…12e3backed Yes | 2c | 4,613$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,499$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,455$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…d047backed Yes | 2c | 4,253$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…b7eebacked Yes | 2c | 4,207$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…4633backed Yes | 4c | 3,693$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 3,484$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d51…1c9bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,433$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…1faabacked Yes | 2c | 3,385$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,208$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…f2e2backed Yes | 3c | 3,017$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +545.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…8b12backed Yes | 2c | 2,958$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa843…cb84backed Yes | 2c | 2,844$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 2c | 2,771$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755c…5933backed Yes | 2c | 2,748$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…1b5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,745$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…c5c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,736$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,646$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 2c | 2,630$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…201ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,607$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 2,519$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4046…0d22backed Yes | 1c | 2,513$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…28d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,428$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,343$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…7f4abacked Yes | 2c | 2,335$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ab…b998backed Yes | 1c | 2,289$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 2c | 2,251$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,070$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…79b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,060$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cc4ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,054$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 2c | 2,044$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 2c | 2,044$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…31e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,036$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…1630backed Yes | 2c | 2,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +574.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 1c | 1,999$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,968$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…938fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 1c | 1,743$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 1,728$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 2c | 1,645$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…c14dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,638$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…75e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…e4d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,606$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…b4a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,584$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2beb…7d14backed Yes | 2c | 1,567$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 1c | 1,547$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,458$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…5bdabacked Yes | 2c | 1,450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 1c | 1,440$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…f150backed Yes | 3c | 1,438$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…1afebacked Yes | 4c | 1,410$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 2c | 1,388$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,339$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…5dd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,319$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…5833backed Yes | 2c | 1,289$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff43…d05dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,256$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…1ef0backed Yes | 1c | 1,231$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…c8f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…5010backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 1c | 1,204$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.