TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,685 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c31,756$103 inLost-$1031910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+365.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost-$6011013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes0c14,136$32 inLost-$32.27137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+886%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes0c13,347$43 inLost-$432128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost-$244524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes0c11,667$40 inLost-$40214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes0c10,000$38 inLost-$38.13119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x508e…5c09backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost-$501010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…2658backed Yes0c9,000$30 inLost-$30.0660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c8,302$17 inLost-$16.64521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,503$16 inLost-$15.914121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73a…e108backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes0c3,481$10 inLost-$10.445832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3bf…2d00backed Yes1c2,800$22 inLost-$21.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes1c1,821$11 inLost-$10.82714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…7f81backed Yes1c1,189$10 inLost-$102711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.