World Politics · resolved market
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71efc09081b0e1afb01434ad7d626e22673c90494cbc64916e7476c707bc8bac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,254,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,432,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,254,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x472c…3587backed Yes | 0c | 131,481$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…6218backed Yes | 0c | 118,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259d…94ebbacked No | 45c | 111,863$50,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,524.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc99…ede8backed Yes | 55c | 111,863$61,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,524.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…2a3fbacked No | 47c | 95,586$44,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,660.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…6ebebacked Yes | 53c | 95,586$50,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,660.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…0880backed Yes | 55c | 80,469$44,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,257.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…f374backed No | 45c | 80,469$36,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,257.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 78,819$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 63,803$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.61 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 60,599$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfb…02f0backed Yes | 56c | 59,266$33,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,188.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…177ebacked No | 44c | 59,266$26,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,188.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 40,309$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…ed93backed Yes | 0c | 37,050$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa176…4167backed No | 44c | 36,125$15,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,230 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…965fbacked Yes | 56c | 36,125$20,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b6…5efebacked Yes | 0c | 34,659$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes | 0c | 33,489$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 30,136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cf…711ebacked No | 34c | 29,533$10,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,491.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f4…b0bfbacked Yes | 66c | 29,533$19,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,491.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…d2f6backed Yes | 0c | 27,783$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb642…166bbacked No | 43c | 25,512$10,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,541.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…0932backed Yes | 57c | 25,512$14,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,541.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 0c | 23,902$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 17,793$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…8e21backed Yes | 1c | 16,332$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd676…df04backed Yes | 1c | 15,376$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…f72abacked Yes | 1c | 13,198$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 0c | 12,994$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…96bcbacked Yes | 1c | 12,639$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…fce9backed Yes | 0c | 12,418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…a2b3backed Yes | 2c | 11,712$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…e233backed Yes | 0c | 9,597$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,178$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b8…77bfbacked Yes | 1c | 9,158$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…2e00backed Yes | 0c | 8,226$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9b…abf7backed Yes | 0c | 8,175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0914…9c93backed Yes | 0c | 7,782$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…3855backed Yes | 0c | 6,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed Yes | 1c | 6,308$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…a39cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,802$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 12c | 5,168$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…40c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,665$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…76e3backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c0…2874backed Yes | 0c | 3,710$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 0c | 3,512$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…4f13backed Yes | 1c | 3,509$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1b35backed Yes | 1c | 3,390$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…6623backed Yes | 0c | 3,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0634backed Yes | 1c | 3,345$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…e660backed Yes | 32c | 3,271$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed No | 68c | 3,271$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 3,203$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 46c | 3,130$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.02 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 0c | 2,847$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…cb8bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 58c | 2,750$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…17bcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,625$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c3…c8b4backed Yes | 0c | 2,550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…a9aabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…0758backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f00…d165backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 17c | 2,353$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…272ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20bd…8e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 25cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 1c | 1,989$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 43c | 1,660$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.87 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…c12dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,546$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…05a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,513$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…590cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,340$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 66c | 1,280$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.48 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 72c | 1,064$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 60c | 900$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 43c | 844.83$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.92 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 29c | 784.2$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 43c | 770.89$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 770.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…ef05backed No | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 48c | 707.66$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.17 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 28c | 692.71$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.02 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed No | 73c | 690$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a94…a136backed Yes | 49c | 686.84$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 28c | 629.31$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed No | 45c | 623.57$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 53c | 603.84$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 45c | 534.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed Yes | 57c | 519$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 46c | 494.63$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.36 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 14c | 492.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.