TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,566,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$339,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,566,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 868 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c54,022$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.77160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f1…b17bbacked Yes1c30,000$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c28,615$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.265132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe28d…06dcbacked Yes1c27,954$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes1c22,730$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.33214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+150.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeec…59dfbacked Yes1c20,037$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c19,622$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.286883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes1c18,304$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.332711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec55…a300backed Yes2c16,512$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes1c15,214$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.611225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+562.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7781…2cd7backed Yes1c14,884$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes1c14,834$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.384524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c13,445$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.344121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes1c13,344$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.921910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+365.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ada…c4e4backed Yes1c9,093$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c8,709$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.641131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c8,225$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.64521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes1c8,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5411013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0c1…e861backed Yes1c7,351$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4880%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x573b…c89cbacked Yes1c6,112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x144c…e424backed Yes1c6,011$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.891717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+1,129.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…f97bbacked Yes1c5,842$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes1c5,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes1c5,178$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.283119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes1c5,150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.074825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ef…39b9backed Yes1c5,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a3…b088backed Yes1c4,916$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c4,510$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.141018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f43…805ebacked Yes1c4,507$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf4…c381backed Yes1c4,495$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes1c4,299$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c4,286$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.433614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa258…2055backed Yes1c3,973$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c7e…5ce1backed Yes0c3,539$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa768…38dabacked Yes1c3,398$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0abb…847bbacked Yes1c3,199$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes1c3,111$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.955832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5746…f001backed Yes2c3,089$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes1c2,750$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2512630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a76…de13backed Yes1c2,501$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155113.7%7 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+622.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab2…ed50backed Yes1c2,428$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c0c…6b64backed Yes1c2,371$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.731010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-81.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9680…d1d5backed Yes1c2,361$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+150.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,313$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.031,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4075…9cf9backed Yes1c2,277$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf957…7b87backed Yes1c2,258$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1002…bdf0backed Yes1c2,246$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad4…3d2abacked Yes1c2,209$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes1c2,164$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed Yes1c2,132$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.941717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c2,116$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.383823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c1…fa46backed Yes1c2,075$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes1c2,070$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+400.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5dd1…5953backed Yes1c2,066$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Yes6c2,063$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1201…cfcdbacked Yes1c2,044$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa21…d9c9backed Yes1c2,027$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+574.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes1c1,912$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+154.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…37c5backed Yes1c1,863$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6197…5857backed Yes1c1,823$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x372e…203cbacked Yes1c1,738$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9be…5d02backed Yes1c1,706$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes1c1,635$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…c1e5backed Yes1c1,625$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf502…26e8backed Yes1c1,613$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.191414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+375.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98bb…f33cbacked Yes1c1,594$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Yes1c1,566$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes1c1,543$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.43130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…9799backed Yes7c1,522$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f8c…a9b9backed Yes7c1,521$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d46…7fc1backed Yes7c1,515$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…590dbacked Yes7c1,510$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4229…1bddbacked Yes7c1,505$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48db…e014backed Yes1c1,503$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…ac7abacked Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf4…658dbacked Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…9863backed Yes7c1,479$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b40…52d3backed Yes7c1,458$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf023…5876backed Yes7c1,455$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abc…0144backed Yes7c1,454$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa864…765fbacked Yes7c1,451$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac1…e9aabacked Yes7c1,451$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes1c1,448$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d8…1461backed Yes1c1,444$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+238.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…d3c2backed Yes1c1,444$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd96…1cadbacked Yes7c1,444$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…2d8cbacked Yes7c1,442$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb3…6611backed Yes7c1,441$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9335…bde1backed Yes7c1,439$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc1…7d7bbacked Yes7c1,435$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0446…9ddfbacked Yes7c1,434$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb48c…2e36backed Yes7c1,433$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c8…7f81backed Yes7c1,432$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705a…18a1backed Yes7c1,432$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…59a6backed Yes7c1,432$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b4…f044backed Yes7c1,431$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.