World Politics · resolved market
Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd711be2656ef48392bc30e556d55a507f366e56cdd6f3f8321989f44b82dec59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 1c | 31,192$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…ff03backed Yes | 1c | 28,195$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 1c | 25,800$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 20,100$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 16,748$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 12,439$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…e4cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…a938backed Yes | 1c | 7,852$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 6,222$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,388$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…e4d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,608$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,542$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,323$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…898ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 1c | 3,886$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…0505backed Yes | 1c | 3,639$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed Yes | 1c | 3,249$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 1c | 3,031$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 3,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…d3e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,894$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 1c | 2,884$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8626…8973backed Yes | 1c | 2,693$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,497$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…59ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…1c50backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…93a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,155$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…fc58backed Yes | 1c | 2,149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…1ec4backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +443.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +5,329.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…b1a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 50c | 2,015$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.33 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 50c | 1,778$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.4 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc473…f0bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,349$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,333$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…86e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,224$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 1,190$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.24 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,121$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…1531backed Yes | 1c | 844.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…c6d9backed Yes | 3c | 718.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28fb…cf9bbacked Yes | 10c | 518.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…67c7backed Yes | 10c | 503.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c8…0743backed Yes | 7c | 439.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…2732backed Yes | 6c | 385.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…2af4backed Yes | 3c | 347.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…5e7fbacked Yes | 3c | 343.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +1,049.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854a…5f95backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.