World Politics · resolved market
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94804ca845f8a47d7b57ded99651443836d4b7b10ee8ec6ed991b6c88eb37216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,051,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,051,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 77,492$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.6 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 5c | 62,480$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,057.38 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 2c | 31,749$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.28 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 31,668$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c5…a375backed Yes | 2c | 27,973$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 4c | 15,735$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.46 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,126$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 3c | 13,807$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.08 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…e0f9backed Yes | 7c | 13,517$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…22c8backed Yes | 2c | 12,939$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…fc05backed Yes | 4c | 11,355$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 11,300$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.89 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 3c | 11,138$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 2c | 9,958$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 9,914$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…766abacked Yes | 1c | 9,831$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 4c | 9,247$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1,107.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,165$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 9,051$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…2658backed Yes | 4c | 9,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb3…bb8ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,676$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 5c | 8,624$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…0008backed Yes | 2c | 6,477$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,997$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,830$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 5,801$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 5,632$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 1c | 5,540$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…787dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,375$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 5,300$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 3c | 5,150$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…23d5backed Yes | 5c | 5,143$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa346…738fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,032$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0a…a532backed Yes | 2c | 4,940$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 4,805$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e84…a3cfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,782$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…35d1backed Yes | 2c | 4,769$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…5b0fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,688$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 4,623$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…5dbcbacked Yes | 3c | 4,567$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 1c | 4,524$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 2c | 4,508$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,488$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,340$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…d43fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,309$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…751ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,239$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…1895backed Yes | 2c | 4,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…2a44backed Yes | 2c | 4,070$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 2c | 3,785$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…2f67backed Yes | 6c | 3,689$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 6c | 3,641$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…81c7backed Yes | 3c | 3,553$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…64e3backed Yes | 3c | 3,508$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…73dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,267$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +1,540.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd794…5442backed Yes | 4c | 3,222$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 2c | 3,098$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,085$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 5c | 2,889$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…67d3backed Yes | 2c | 2,684$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…fbccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,659$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +1,448.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,616$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 4c | 2,613$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +933.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…d107backed Yes | 5c | 2,457$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…e846backed Yes | 1c | 2,393$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,337$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…fab2backed Yes | 5c | 2,153$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…2732backed Yes | 2c | 2,146$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7136…b35abacked Yes | 3c | 2,134$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +272.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 5c | 2,071$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 5c | 2,069$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa567…71bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,026$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…a8ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +574.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…93a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,985$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,955$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 2c | 1,931$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…b237backed Yes | 1c | 1,882$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 6c | 1,872$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +480.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,758$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…c6d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…d12fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,698$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 2c | 1,669$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +886%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ab…b998backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…f2e2backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +545.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 5c | 1,609$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 5c | 1,593$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…b16bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,544$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…c09cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,519$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…d77fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,464$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…0a88backed Yes | 2c | 1,436$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…6b76backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.