TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,052,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$426,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,052,993 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed9e…0d91backed Yes4c47,575$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,993.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes1c47,000$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.94214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+150.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccf…6bcfbacked Yes1c43,510$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c35,813$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.726883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes1c35,608$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+375.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c31,256$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.245132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb2…b1dcbacked Yes1c14,785$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a3…b088backed Yes1c14,108$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,586$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.74121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1e…2465backed Yes1c12,276$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes1c12,190$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.842711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c10,857$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.321018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf5…156cbacked Yes2c10,100$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+562.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…7828backed Yes1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c9,933$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.054521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e3…58ffbacked Yes2c9,750$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a49…498fbacked Yes2c8,573$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c7,794$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.973614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes1c7,698$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.951131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bd…d079backed Yes2c7,610$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f48…6a49backed Yes1c7,193$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d7…91f8backed Yes1c7,080$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x144c…e424backed Yes1c6,950$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+1,129.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ab…1fd2backed Yes1c6,736$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9825…7234backed Yes1c6,685$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ac…ae38backed Yes2c6,321$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1002…bdf0backed Yes2c6,312$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb384…09e0backed Yes1c6,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51aa…72b0backed Yes1c5,990$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616f…4dedbacked Yes2c5,879$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ce…fa8cbacked Yes2c5,771$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc72a…1e79backed Yes1c5,674$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes0c5,604$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.011631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c96…ed75backed Yes1c5,198$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes1c5,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6996…eabbbacked Yes1c4,590$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1175…9d7dbacked Yes1c4,554$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes1c4,531$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c4,479$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.061,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe245…1b4dbacked Yes2c4,453$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…a253backed Yes1c4,380$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7e…c09cbacked Yes1c4,314$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.38140%0 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes1c4,231$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.15110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a14…f397backed Yes2c4,201$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-81.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d06…addabacked Yes6c4,054$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e91…d445backed Yes1c4,051$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f08…0521backed Yes1c3,875$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,809$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.051,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes1c3,708$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.453119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b25…191cbacked Yes1c3,667$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick6cpaid+303.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x160a…2354backed Yes1c3,635$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes1c3,631$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes1c3,562$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+400.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb409…3038backed Yes1c3,559$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa050…3e54backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3d…3c8dbacked Yes1c3,269$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc746…114dbacked Yes1c3,254$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c8…52c0backed Yes2c3,228$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2571…5d1ebacked Yes1c3,111$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes2c3,095$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8634…a3e3backed Yes1c3,066$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes1c3,019$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.581612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+299.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a93…d2ccbacked Yes2c3,004$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf913…bf53backed Yes1c2,960$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5a…2cdfbacked Yes1c2,888$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4689…ca52backed Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f0…b6bebacked Yes2c2,566$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick2cpaid+1,456%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes2c2,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451020%2 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+933.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a8f…4c34backed Yes1c2,498$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d1a…7f73backed Yes1c2,486$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes3c2,433$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.624825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ec…01e6backed Yes1c2,410$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941b…d05abacked Yes2c2,350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6a…36a8backed Yes1c2,330$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b8…d05abacked Yes1c2,201$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes1c2,137$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2463…f0e4backed Yes1c2,124$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1388…7f81backed Yes1c2,110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5169…1118backed Yes1c2,103$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc229…81c7backed Yes2c2,072$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-77.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d26…ec32backed Yes1c2,026$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeec…59dfbacked Yes1c2,009$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0796…e45bbacked Yes2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes1c1,991$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.76650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+1,808.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d62…5833backed Yes1c1,980$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+468.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecce…aac6backed Yes1c1,937$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81f…3eccbacked Yes1c1,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…ddbabacked Yes1c1,767$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fc…aab9backed Yes1c1,718$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…3723backed Yes1c1,710$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa268…3b36backed Yes1c1,684$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a13…1c4dbacked Yes1c1,680$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes1c1,655$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.595236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d6…20cdbacked Yes1c1,642$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c8…0743backed Yes2c1,627$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d8…1461backed Yes1c1,576$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+238.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.912630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x599a…da6cbacked Yes1c1,494$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.