World Politics · resolved market
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0cea4d74ffb2c8451f8834fc9f93e72479eab3a4a98b75127940f5f60f1622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,584,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,406,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,584,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 27c | 74,489$19,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,940.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 63c | 67,643$42,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,950.28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…561ebacked Yes | 35c | 62,601$21,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,659.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…b51fbacked Yes | 28c | 60,255$16,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,631.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Yes | 27c | 50,000$13,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,499.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…ef86backed Yes | 26c | 48,780$12,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,757.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 72c | 46,092$33,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,952.76 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 29c | 43,680$12,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,799.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…45d5backed Yes | 50c | 37,812$19,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,999.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 26c | 37,458$9,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,907.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4800…30b3backed Yes | 30c | 36,167$10,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,811.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e8…d0bdbacked Yes | 65c | 33,749$22,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,017 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…0c1fbacked Yes | 30c | 29,928$8,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,847.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 34c | 28,490$9,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,874.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 71c | 27,505$19,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,946.4 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 35c | 27,415$9,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,571.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf8…39d3backed No | 74c | 25,976$19,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,744.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 44c | 22,472$9,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,520.17 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 67c | 22,133$14,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,794.64 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 23c | 21,380$4,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,838.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 70c | 20,005$14,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,939.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 74c | 20,000$14,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed No | 73c | 19,658$14,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,224.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 73c | 19,386$14,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,306.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 69c | 19,065$13,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,967.9 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 73c | 18,965$13,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,076.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 72c | 18,157$13,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,038.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 68c | 17,826$12,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,761.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…2360backed Yes | 7c | 16,886$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 26c | 16,002$4,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,201.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 34c | 15,966$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,604.03 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 49c | 14,805$7,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,256.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…f0dabacked Yes | 68c | 14,801$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…ad93backed Yes | 32c | 14,338$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 71c | 13,942$9,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,996.75 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 28c | 13,478$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,803.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked No | 72c | 13,145$9,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 57c | 12,387$7,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.67 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 59c | 12,286$7,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,046.28 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…864cbacked Yes | 29c | 12,057$3,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,551.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 28c | 11,433$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.30per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…99d1backed No | 72c | 11,099$7,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,107.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 32c | 11,034$3,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,465.06 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 46c | 10,878$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,952.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 71c | 10,814$7,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,669.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…e0f9backed Yes | 27c | 10,788$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…76b4backed Yes | 27c | 10,095$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 70c | 10,082$7,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,020.38 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 73c | 10,018$7,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.16 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…c01dbacked Yes | 30c | 10,013$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 73c | 10,000$7,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,719.98 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…dc7cbacked No | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…0961backed Yes | 32c | 9,806$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 34c | 9,602$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,352.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 36c | 9,161$3,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,897.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 72c | 9,090$6,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,547.95 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…f61bbacked Yes | 57c | 8,493$4,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…5dbcbacked Yes | 30c | 8,473$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…13c1backed Yes | 73c | 8,193$6,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,007.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed Yes | 29c | 8,002$2,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…80fbbacked Yes | 27c | 8,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +785.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…cb4cbacked Yes | 28c | 7,726$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…9f89backed Yes | 26c | 7,673$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…83b0backed Yes | 67c | 7,518$5,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a6…8ac5backed Yes | 28c | 7,510$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828f…fa80backed Yes | 31c | 7,420$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…49fabacked Yes | 28c | 7,406$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 29c | 7,150$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 26c | 7,065$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 26c | 7,011$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…685bbacked Yes | 62c | 6,977$4,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,311.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…2722backed No | 61c | 6,837$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…3a15backed Yes | 24c | 6,592$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a5…faf4backed Yes | 66c | 6,551$4,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,346.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 28c | 6,492$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…e4cdbacked Yes | 30c | 6,473$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…5f59backed Yes | 29c | 6,461$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 64c | 6,284$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…7d92backed Yes | 28c | 6,146$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 65c | 6,000$3,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.98 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…0e31backed Yes | 30c | 5,993$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a82backed Yes | 74c | 5,965$4,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,387.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…15afbacked Yes | 29c | 5,926$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…33a3backed No | 70c | 5,871$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…af2bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,831$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Yes | 70c | 5,666$3,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,944 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 28c | 5,501$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 51c | 5,391$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.07 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes | 28c | 5,192$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed No | 63c | 5,163$3,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…e43ebacked Yes | 30c | 5,081$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 64c | 5,021$3,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,191.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 67c | 5,007$3,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…5a83backed Yes | 29c | 5,005$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 72c | 5,001$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…f9fbbacked Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…0d8abacked Yes | 50c | 4,724$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…9a59backed Yes | 38c | 4,651$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed No | 65c | 4,635$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.85 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 29c | 4,431$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.