TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,273,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,871,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,273,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e4d…2890backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a91…dbf7backed Yes23c71,684$16,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,143.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc055…1299backed No80c66,956$53,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,391.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes20c66,956$13,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,391.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes21c65,589$13,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,988.6812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+553%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8883…ad93backed Yes25c41,371$10,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,548.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes20c40,583$8,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,008.676883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes20c36,242$7,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,247.79166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x334b…d734backed Yes20c29,721$5,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,888.081723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-50.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c25,443$5,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,146.7256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Yes23c24,532$5,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,572.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d3f…0b08backed Yes20c22,304$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,43310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes20c21,472$4,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No78c20,118$15,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.6311013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes19c18,733$3,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,525.6114330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1212…99e7backed No78c18,072$14,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,966.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c18,012$3,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,715.7116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes22c17,983$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,981.0910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No78c17,118$13,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,785.3918530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes19c15,818$3,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.432218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick44cpaid-68.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9c2c…80febacked Yes1c15,460$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Yes42c13,269$5,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,582.1250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea8…d59ebacked No77c13,044$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.65944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Yes27c11,819$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08f2…da70backed Yes21c11,661$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d6…5a83backed Yes22c11,585$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dae…335abacked Yes20c11,105$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…e131backed Yes27c11,015$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4cf…91d2backed Yes22c10,305$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,29910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Yes30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes26c10,000$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,589.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes25c9,928$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes23c9,737$2,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.161533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes20c8,881$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No78c8,664$6,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.0631443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes18c8,526$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.293132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…2eb0backed Yes20c8,076$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes21c8,011$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.911625%4 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes21c7,700$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.3827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes19c7,491$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.38821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes23c6,468$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.291947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5165…cffcbacked Yes19c6,438$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No76c6,341$4,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.13342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2501330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No75c6,234$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.445521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes23c6,184$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.096930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No79c6,077$4,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.275317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x51a8…0e31backed Yes24c6,010$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes31c6,000$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.013928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes20c5,944$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.0216029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6124…7a40backed Yes20c5,724$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No77c5,723$4,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.382737%10 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…5dbcbacked Yes21c5,605$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes20c5,577$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No78c5,576$4,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.993221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x159c…4485backed Yes24c5,518$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…d076backed No78c5,336$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes22c5,335$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.071145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+1,107.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dca…48b9backed No79c5,308$4,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6441…139ebacked No76c5,272$4,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.961650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9265…4ab7backed Yes20c5,156$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.351915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes19c5,123$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.06728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+480.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c5,111$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.941,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes20c5,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9d…85a9backed Yes24c5,021$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked No78c5,000$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1055925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked No77c5,000$3,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.99785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed No78c4,952$3,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.561656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2a…73dfbacked Yes26c4,825$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6658…bd36backed Yes25c4,810$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No80c4,563$3,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.782060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e5…4e19backed Yes22c4,530$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd71…f622backed Yes22c4,423$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5975…6820backed Yes19c4,405$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70bc…855ebacked Yes23c4,382$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes19c4,367$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.66911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+402%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1d…fe6dbacked Yes24c4,322$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x346b…9caabacked Yes25c4,279$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e7…15c9backed Yes23c4,254$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes22c4,214$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.133333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5e…d2f6backed Yes21c4,161$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…2f04backed Yes25c4,077$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2c…8a38backed Yes21c4,030$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes18c4,006$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.152015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No79c3,954$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.032744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No79c3,905$3,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.364517.8%8 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes23c3,877$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf25…cd94backed Yes19c3,874$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes18c3,825$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No79c3,651$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.697254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed No72c3,615$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.97933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2467…0c14backed Yes20c3,515$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b3…129bbacked Yes23c3,514$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-81.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes20c3,509$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.611233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+647.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a79…ad5abacked Yes20c3,506$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…f42abacked Yes26c3,430$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes19c3,410$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.651030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes18c3,322$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee4…f899backed Yes13c3,273$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd4ad…8ac8backed No78c3,268$2,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.781717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.