World Politics · resolved market
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ffd9aab0ebb5be9ec63c29f42bbe1d6c7a43c246612ce3e42febc8658e242a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,273,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,871,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,273,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,709 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e4d…2890backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…dbf7backed Yes | 23c | 71,684$16,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,143.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc055…1299backed No | 80c | 66,956$53,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,391.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes | 20c | 66,956$13,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,391.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 21c | 65,589$13,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,988.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8883…ad93backed Yes | 25c | 41,371$10,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,548.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 20c | 40,583$8,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,008.67 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 20c | 36,242$7,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,247.79 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d734backed Yes | 20c | 29,721$5,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,888.08 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 25,443$5,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,146.72 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Yes | 23c | 24,532$5,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,572.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…0b08backed Yes | 20c | 22,304$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 20c | 21,472$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 78c | 20,118$15,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,359.63 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 19c | 18,733$3,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.61 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…99e7backed No | 78c | 18,072$14,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,966.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 18,012$3,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.71 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 17,983$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,981.09 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 78c | 17,118$13,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,785.39 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 19c | 15,818$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.43 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…80febacked Yes | 1c | 15,460$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Yes | 42c | 13,269$5,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,582.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…d59ebacked No | 77c | 13,044$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,043.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Yes | 27c | 11,819$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,224.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f2…da70backed Yes | 21c | 11,661$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…5a83backed Yes | 22c | 11,585$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…335abacked Yes | 20c | 11,105$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…e131backed Yes | 27c | 11,015$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…91d2backed Yes | 22c | 10,305$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Yes | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 26c | 10,000$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 25c | 9,928$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 23c | 9,737$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes | 20c | 8,881$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 8,664$6,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.06 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 18c | 8,526$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.29 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…2eb0backed Yes | 20c | 8,076$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 21c | 8,011$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 7,700$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.38 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 19c | 7,491$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.3 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 23c | 6,468$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…cffcbacked Yes | 19c | 6,438$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 76c | 6,341$4,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.1 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 80c | 6,250$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 75c | 6,234$4,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.44 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 23c | 6,184$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.09 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 79c | 6,077$4,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.27 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…0e31backed Yes | 24c | 6,010$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 31c | 6,000$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.01 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 20c | 5,944$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.02 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6124…7a40backed Yes | 20c | 5,724$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 77c | 5,723$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…5dbcbacked Yes | 21c | 5,605$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 5,577$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed No | 78c | 5,576$4,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +165%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x159c…4485backed Yes | 24c | 5,518$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…d076backed No | 78c | 5,336$4,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 22c | 5,335$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +1,107.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…48b9backed No | 79c | 5,308$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked No | 76c | 5,272$4,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…4ab7backed Yes | 20c | 5,156$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 5,123$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +480.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 5,111$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.94 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 20c | 5,084$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…85a9backed Yes | 24c | 5,021$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 78c | 5,000$3,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 77c | 5,000$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed No | 78c | 4,952$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…73dfbacked Yes | 26c | 4,825$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…bd36backed Yes | 25c | 4,810$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 80c | 4,563$3,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.78 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e5…4e19backed Yes | 22c | 4,530$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…f622backed Yes | 22c | 4,423$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 19c | 4,405$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…855ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,382$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 19c | 4,367$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1d…fe6dbacked Yes | 24c | 4,322$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…9caabacked Yes | 25c | 4,279$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e7…15c9backed Yes | 23c | 4,254$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 22c | 4,214$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.13 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…d2f6backed Yes | 21c | 4,161$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…2f04backed Yes | 25c | 4,077$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…8a38backed Yes | 21c | 4,030$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,006$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 3,954$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 79c | 3,905$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.36 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6b…3e7abacked Yes | 23c | 3,877$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf25…cd94backed Yes | 19c | 3,874$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 18c | 3,825$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 79c | 3,651$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.69 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 72c | 3,615$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…0c14backed Yes | 20c | 3,515$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b3…129bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,514$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 20c | 3,509$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +647.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…ad5abacked Yes | 20c | 3,506$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…f42abacked Yes | 26c | 3,430$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,410$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes | 18c | 3,322$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…f899backed Yes | 13c | 3,273$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…8ac8backed No | 78c | 3,268$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.