World Politics · resolved market
Will another person be the next Pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90dd69cd3383c1a4de4255e2848e367fff87052c1cdb14a575faea068cb8ec06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac4b…2c3bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,139$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…b890backed Yes | 1c | 15,271$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 14,833$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…1509backed Yes | 4c | 12,189$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,738$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…7372backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,053$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43b…784dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,867$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…8393backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 1c | 3,498$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,280$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 3,216$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 2c | 3,207$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes | 3c | 3,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,936$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 2,672$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,662$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,578$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed Yes | 4c | 2,281$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 3c | 2,021$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 1c | 1,853$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,836$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc838…6455backed Yes | 1c | 1,789$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 2c | 1,769$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…3a32backed Yes | 1c | 1,755$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,674$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,367$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…4b61backed Yes | 1c | 1,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…8257backed Yes | 2c | 1,304$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…103ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,211$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 6cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…4db9backed Yes | 3c | 918.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…086abacked Yes | 2c | 886.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 1c | 851$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked Yes | 3c | 703.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…9a3abacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6065…6d3ebacked Yes | 4c | 640.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…1e98backed Yes | 2c | 588.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 2c | 578.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…214cbacked Yes | 3c | 545.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…5a4cbacked Yes | 2c | 528.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…ef24backed Yes | 2c | 522.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…b3cbbacked Yes | 3c | 466.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…01bbbacked Yes | 3c | 396.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…59c8backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…6ce0backed Yes | 8c | 252.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc66…2206backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…8177backed Yes | 5c | 215.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +338%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed Yes | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…0758backed Yes | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c1…1084backed Yes | 14c | 125.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…f088backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed No | 73c | 82.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1972…6ae1backed Yes | 18c | 58.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b1…5455backed Yes | 47c | 42.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another person be the next Pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.