TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc34f…8f91

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+99.2%+$46.34
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.33
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.83
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$35.27
Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.15
Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+37%+$29.63
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.15
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.5
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.41
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+207.4%+$72.6
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5.33
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.75
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will another person be the next Pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Stars vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+81%+$8.91
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.35
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+60.4%+$102.29
ChatGPT #1 app May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+117.9%+$40.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 8?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend F1 Miami GP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mets vs. Yankeesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.