Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf590a45fc35c11f14ea636678c04998118aac8edb7ac12d3049c5e0e9ed218a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 3c | 798.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 790.22$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.33 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 20c | 674.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.03 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 52c | 655.36$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.71 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 64c | 544.26$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 32c | 447.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.63 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 36c | 426.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.85 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 72c | 367.12$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 44c | 310.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 47c | 238.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 203.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 48c | 200.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 27c | 189.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 177.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…e236backed Yes | 27c | 170.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 55c | 162.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b94…473ebacked Yes | 69c | 145.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 38c | 132.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 115.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 105.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 63c | 99.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8de…a361backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8413…e59fbacked Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 37c | 74.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 38c | 62.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 52.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 52.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 46.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes | 51c | 45.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 68c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…8d11backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16b…2c39backed Yes | 43c | 35.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…68e1backed Yes | 50c | 34.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7772backed No | 59c | 33.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 9?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 9?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on May 9?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 9?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 9?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.