TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$824,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$774,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x257c…2cfebacked Yes47c78,556$36,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,921.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…613dbacked No53c78,556$41,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,921.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cf…fdc5backed No53c70,439$37,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,106.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43c6…67c0backed Yes47c70,439$33,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,106.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2623…9454backed Yes29c49,247$14,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,281.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef9…dc3abacked No71c49,247$34,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,281.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes10c24,547$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,454.8219027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c18,197$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.516883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes6c17,360$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.3625337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes6c14,716$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.233348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes4c12,781$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.244012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9d…6fd7backed Yes3c8,954$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes5c8,420$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.933221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4e…3d21backed Yes9c7,917$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730c…f684backed Yes5c7,652$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9504…0371backed Yes6c6,514$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes8c6,169$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.1917037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes31c5,470$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.3910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes6c5,277$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes4c5,143$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.213318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes4c4,422$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.363511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No75c4,408$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.455664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bb…59aabacked Yes9c4,252$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cc…f65ebacked Yes5c4,163$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes36c4,159$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes4c4,000$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.762931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes5c4,000$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.9918036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda09…d960backed Yes9c3,773$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes13c3,588$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.1710533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes15c3,478$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.0919237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c3,310$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.762939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c3,150$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.621,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c3,099$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd97…1ff6backed Yes3c3,082$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes7c3,058$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.968025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes12c3,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35011850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xd488…83e7backed Yes5c2,814$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes6c2,750$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.81933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+58.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes5c2,469$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.92825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b38…c84dbacked Yes5c2,303$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes25c2,210$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.4414330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked Yes5c2,004$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a3…856ebacked Yes7c1,883$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1537…c480backed Yes6c1,862$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.541442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97d5…d028backed Yes4c1,839$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c1,700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.45132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece3…98c1backed Yes3c1,697$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4342…b657backed Yes6c1,673$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb592…1cabbacked Yes5c1,663$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.441711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes42c1,595$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.1812029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155e…0a3ebacked Yes3c1,554$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes18c1,535$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2410520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c7…c12dbacked Yes6c1,534$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeeb…6ff3backed Yes7c1,532$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes6c1,510$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7724736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e1…91d0backed Yes7c1,505$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes29c1,500$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4407533.3%25 W · 50 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0156…3c73backed Yes7c1,430$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94b…0379backed Yes5c1,398$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fc…07f2backed Yes4c1,373$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8d…e3ccbacked Yes7c1,361$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b2b…d9d5backed Yes8c1,293$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+292.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed No80c1,274$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.713531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+142.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0827…f47ebacked Yes9c1,238$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5110…2695backed Yes4c1,163$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe16…63a9backed Yes45c1,106$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2041…66c2backed Yes3c1,098$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x107c…5f0fbacked Yes5c1,081$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c1,073$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.994766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6841…23bebacked Yes6c1,034$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603324.2%8 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+594.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed No79c965.56$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.93922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5428…a6c2backed Yes6c920$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc05b…14a8backed Yes3c919.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8d…d79cbacked Yes5c909.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1267…c75cbacked Yes3c882.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes6c870$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.444327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de6…d59abacked Yes6c836.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…8af0backed Yes7c807.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5f…6be7backed Yes7c802.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes7c800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.520034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aaa…1a7cbacked Yes7c750.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes6c731.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.754957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes28c712.5$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963122.6%7 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+855%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…8f91backed Yes15c707.21$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511b…6ba4backed Yes3c688.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2052…529fbacked Yes22c662.41$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.731070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c64…c963backed Yes8c637.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2850…0c6cbacked Yes8c636.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ac…e9d7backed Yes8c630.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x963c…9986backed Yes4c623.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9110…8a81backed Yes3c615.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x120b…9e1ebacked Yes5c601.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a8…e6e1backed Yes5c593$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes50c590$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1173…faa9backed Yes5c587.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked Yes9c557.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fe…b3a6backed Yes4c550.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes46c544$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.241030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe992…847ebacked Yes4c527.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.