World Politics · resolved market
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03d57b46639f895cd964478206dcd03c1ff4c243a9ccd73a24952cd44669591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $606,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc05b…14a8backed Yes | 1c | 32,798$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 22,791$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.34 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 20,571$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 16,742$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…1ff6backed Yes | 4c | 14,211$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…3d11backed Yes | 1c | 12,172$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…0cb8backed Yes | 1c | 11,003$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…5e9abacked Yes | 2c | 9,708$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,958$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 8,652$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…c8f2backed Yes | 6c | 7,616$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…6d89backed Yes | 1c | 7,119$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 1c | 6,997$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefba…2a1ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,986$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,699$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…e358backed Yes | 1c | 6,500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 6,152$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 5,574$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7857…f166backed Yes | 2c | 5,116$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 3c | 4,337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,292$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…6ff3backed Yes | 1c | 4,229$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 4,097$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 1c | 3,961$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8c…0fdbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,703$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…901cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,518$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…66dfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,220$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…1a33backed Yes | 1c | 3,080$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a1…801dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,924$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…47fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,919$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…f2a5backed Yes | 1c | 2,663$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…1938backed Yes | 1c | 2,638$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…70c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,452$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…fcccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,412$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ac…e9d7backed Yes | 3c | 2,365$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…c963backed Yes | 2c | 2,314$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…b450backed Yes | 2c | 2,186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…402dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,073$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…9072backed Yes | 1c | 2,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…30b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,880$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…adc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,837$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…d669backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…6225backed Yes | 2c | 1,770$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…5181backed Yes | 1c | 1,610$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8b…0aeabacked Yes | 2c | 1,562$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,549$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa5…8c1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…73f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,433$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…2d51backed Yes | 2c | 1,425$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b69…9002backed Yes | 2c | 1,377$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…0733backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…597ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,172$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…8137backed Yes | 2c | 1,138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cf…4441backed Yes | 3c | 1,111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…6794backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991c…3633backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…e3ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b2…64bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,034$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…6475backed Yes | 2c | 966.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…5c44backed Yes | 2c | 963.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…84febacked Yes | 2c | 893.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…1247backed Yes | 3c | 814.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 77c | 782$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…9083backed Yes | 2c | 764.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…3af8backed Yes | 2c | 763.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5448…0df8backed Yes | 2c | 746.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…3b05backed Yes | 2c | 684.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3fcbbacked Yes | 2c | 681.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc08…908dbacked Yes | 2c | 665.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…d99fbacked Yes | 3c | 583.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…4fbbbacked Yes | 4c | 542.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…1d74backed Yes | 3c | 501.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…8f8bbacked Yes | 4c | 495.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…bda0backed Yes | 2c | 424.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…bc96backed Yes | 3c | 410.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…6419backed Yes | 3c | 395$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?this page
- Will Livre win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
- Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?Yes won
- Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
- Will the Liberal Initiative win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
- Will the People-Animals-Nature Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
- Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
- Will the Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP+PEV) win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.