TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$611,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$712,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c23,596$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.276883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No11c21,689$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.0719027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No5c20,000$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.7518214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No4c15,631$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9913918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No14c11,181$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.7410520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes77c9,955$7,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.61612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c8,706$2,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.5957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c7,288$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.092939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes79c7,047$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.436648.5%32 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No37c6,248$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.415664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes58c6,062$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.2248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d5…312abacked No8c5,578$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.121030%3 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3221…544cbacked No5c5,263$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No4c3,761$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.433551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed No8c3,542$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.69214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+150.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x867c…5d65backed No4c3,522$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.831526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes57c3,389$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x012b…4745backed Yes63c3,268$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes53c3,204$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.422634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc96c…6a98backed Yes70c2,994$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.011450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed No4c2,900$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.49170%0 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c37…1719backed No4c2,788$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes71c2,121$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.592250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes59c2,057$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.846434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked No5c1,912$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.393318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No4c1,535$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.585132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes65c1,313$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.928143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5428…a6c2backed Yes73c1,274$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No27c1,208$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…42c0backed No4c1,069$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c992.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.631,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc623…9afdbacked Yes79c985.85$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes51c900$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4412839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6356…9f72backed No4c833.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c806.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8418628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed No6c776.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x416f…18d8backed Yes47c755.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.02875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+64.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70d8…2f32backed No5c751.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No9c740.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8419043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No28c736.18$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3214330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No51c721$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.716930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes71c673.18$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.3927828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2052…529fbacked Yes65c609.63$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.561070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e4e…f36ebacked No4c595$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13cf…4441backed Yes65c584.47$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.381154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No4c580$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9215026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…23e2backed No3c571.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62b…afc2backed No4c555.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.87423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6712920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes71c500$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.54623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes56c447.96$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.961850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96be…8336backed No5c415.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…6369backed Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e0…e1cfbacked No4c390$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1885…e4f8backed No7c367$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked No6c360.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2180%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No3c359.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.212931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b66…2c09backed No8c321.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd469…cb79backed No8c320.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a6…3c3ebacked No4c303.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No8c291.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.784766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7816…4e0abacked No5c279.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1b…e45ebacked Yes61c270$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4761…e9f5backed No8c266.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1af…7cd7backed No4c256$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae35…4fbbbacked No8c255.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-74.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8b…3c8abacked Yes70c250.8$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb098…1f3fbacked No5c239$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes73c235$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9816940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes70c225.97$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.623348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a0…7f45backed Yes69c224.65$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No26c219.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.041,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x020f…8357backed Yes51c205.88$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de1…b0d2backed Yes51c187.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7d…ee3bbacked Yes76c172$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes73c159.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.923933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No19c159.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.544957.1%28 W · 21 L+7.8wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+59.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed Yes78c158.94$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.971735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-49.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f48…c790backed Yes74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2c…047cbacked Yes71c141.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…0b30backed Yes72c138.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.061861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b98…d995backed No10c132.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a1…801dbacked No8c132.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ab…f852backed No8c132$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes69c131$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.823638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+340%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a0…d41cbacked No8c126$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes69c117.2$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.79825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204822.9%11 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8a…3082backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-55.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb069…54e7backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf515…e56bbacked No31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf1b…3307backed No49c93.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.