TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Knicks, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,472,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,632,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,472,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 722 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15e0…8d86backed Pacers58c197,087$114,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,061.883764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks42c150,854$62,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,959.9414052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3196…146fbacked Knicks44c113,596$49,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,982.381936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Knicks43c93,163$40,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,148.6496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Pacers78c77,429$60,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,287.2210357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Knicks43c66,551$28,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,358.87335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed Pacers73c63,811$46,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,161.644551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Pacers58c59,247$34,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,618.2228341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pacers58c57,109$33,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,985.7814434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Pacers56c56,722$31,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,957.712138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks44c55,506$24,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,3001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Knicks42c52,072$21,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,996.6828241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Knicks43c41,901$18,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,124.2335235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Knicks3c36,011$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.973636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Pacers56c33,755$18,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,852.366873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Pacers73c33,415$24,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,915.1623342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Pacers58c26,114$15,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,042.397445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers59c25,143$14,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,260.7518146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Pacers58c20,690$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,689.663852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks44c19,317$8,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,499.453644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pacers56c18,946$10,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,336.2449849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Pacers80c18,248$14,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.644062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers68c17,938$12,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,763.8829957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Pacers58c17,742$10,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,409.2113560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Pacers58c17,350$10,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,286.995350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Knicks35c16,658$5,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,898.361,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Knicks17c15,597$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.618036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks36c15,397$5,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,602.183,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Knicks44c15,116$6,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,651.0766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Knicks43c14,000$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,019.9916641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Knicks28c13,915$3,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.228921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Pacers78c13,586$10,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.634484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Knicks11c13,245$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.931,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks38c12,511$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,780.1776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Knicks43c11,861$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,100.2220248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Pacers57c11,794$6,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,072.571,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff1…efdbbacked Pacers56c10,974$6,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,828.341471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Knicks33c10,914$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.555950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pacers79c10,764$8,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,288.061,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2016…b4bebacked Pacers73c10,720$7,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,921.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks43c10,490$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,510.7861851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281d…0c73backed Knicks21c10,417$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.522412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Knicks2c10,332$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9622039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae7c…6d3bbacked Knicks42c10,162$4,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.855349.1%26 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b52…e5f2backed Knicks42c10,135$4,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,256.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3375…a8d8backed Knicks34c10,100$3,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4342236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Knicks45c10,000$4,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,477.774252.4%22 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Knicks44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4004753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pacers56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.961,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc40…4036backed Pacers57c9,761$5,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,197.41366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Knicks18c9,322$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.218518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Pacers60c8,755$5,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,460.5428347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Knicks43c8,500$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.998053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a9…132fbacked Pacers59c8,470$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,472.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Knicks26c8,312$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…98cfbacked Knicks29c7,960$2,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,289.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Knicks3c7,900$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22211019.1%21 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks22c7,676$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.767929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Pacers63c7,208$4,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.910926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Knicks33c7,004$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.121741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+98.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Knicks8c7,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5607236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x982a…48aebacked Knicks29c6,968$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Pacers58c6,888$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.9310541%43 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Knicks32c6,849$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.651631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe1…5e04backed Knicks22c6,834$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Knicks35c6,791$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.4413248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Pacers63c6,694$4,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.737261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Knicks1c6,547$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.435121.6%11 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfb…55c8backed Knicks45c6,423$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,890.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fb…ba30backed Knicks43c6,160$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.81050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Knicks43c5,996$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.447038.6%27 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked Knicks43c5,939$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks9c5,929$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.5479549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers57c5,544$3,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.252,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a6…b6fdbacked Knicks1c5,361$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.091,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf90d…0b4dbacked Knicks35c5,261$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Pacers56c5,173$2,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.12580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+50.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Pacers60c5,164$3,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers56c5,050$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2021,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Knicks32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Knicks21c4,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Pacers64c4,705$3,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.969450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Knicks43c4,492$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.531,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Knicks43c4,435$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.051258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Pacers57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.965843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Knicks42c4,110$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.97939.2%31 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf704…7ddbbacked Knicks35c4,045$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Knicks43c4,000$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,71261835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e3…ad70backed Knicks34c3,538$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1901241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…1e7bbacked Pacers56c3,536$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.711866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ff…50c3backed Knicks43c3,477$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f3…a7dbbacked Knicks21c3,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Knicks9c3,000$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.843935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.9947848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pacers55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Knicks43c3,000$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.461,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Knicks15c2,996$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.915942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers73c2,934$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.3270640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.