NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6da570ff5c71929f25da602fb724290e44e7518f8559cb86cb961aa1d955d37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Knicks | 50c | 50,418$25,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,182.25 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Knicks | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,499.99 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Pacers | 50c | 37,510$18,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,805.52 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pacers | 50c | 32,000$16,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,850 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers | 50c | 21,437$10,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,718.68 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Pacers | 51c | 19,777$10,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,712.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Knicks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers | 50c | 3,961$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.89 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers | 50c | 2,607$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.13 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…c29dbacked Knicks | 53c | 2,533$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Knicks | 50c | 2,148$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Knicks | 1c | 1,112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 51c | 602$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Knicks | 51c | 538.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…cb74backed Pacers | 50c | 416.78$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Knicks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Pacers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Knicks | 53c | 307.74$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Pacers | 50c | 202.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Pacers | 53c | 120.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…fdf7backed Knicks | 49c | 117.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 51c | 111.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Knicks | 49c | 108$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Knicks | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Pacers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Pacers | 54c | 78.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Pacers | 54c | 65.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Pacers | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Pacers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Knicks | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8bfdbacked Pacers | 52c | 39.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Pacers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Pacers | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e5…b46ebacked Knicks | 50c | 36.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Knicks | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Knicks | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Knicks | 47c | 24.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…3f97backed Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)this page
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Knicks vs. PacersPacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.