TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,839 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No3c12,599$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes79c7,960$6,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6722839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No16c7,008$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes76c5,982$4,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.191560%9 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No18c5,947$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No14c5,398$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.7150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes80c4,834$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.671050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked No32c4,025$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes66c3,512$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.171275%9 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes67c3,490$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ad…04a8backed No25c2,629$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…e4a1backed No29c1,379$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No38c1,283$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.531030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca6…b6dcbacked No34c1,170$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No6c1,155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.821154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+111.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No27c1,128$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.751637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed No33c1,027$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.87666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No25c888$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No32c835.1$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.231020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…cd8bbacked No25c829.99$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes78c800.29$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.58450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed No25c797.71$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked Yes79c679.66$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+119.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…efa8backed Yes78c648.01$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c640.5$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No29c609.36$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf8d…e3ccbacked No19c597.13$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes72c542.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed No42c540.3$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed No27c507.83$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No30c504.04$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked No20c502.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No26c500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No27c468$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed No27c460.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes73c434.16$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.184235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No26c428$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.481758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No32c426.38$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3450%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No21c412.26$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.17825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes75c406.89$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.71933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda8…790ebacked No27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd187…399cbacked No25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes68c382.02$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.09771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58bb…1bd7backed No19c370$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x759b…11bfbacked No28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4da…2db1backed No34c352.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec8b…dcecbacked No30c335$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed Yes80c332.66$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee8a…a91ebacked No30c332.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed Yes77c319$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.17825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No32c312.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a46…bdf4backed No28c305.07$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b47…d906backed No33c302.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No17c300.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf855…ddd3backed No35c284.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No21c282.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No30c266.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x371f…b7e6backed Yes57c257.18$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbc…ea34backed No39c256.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca2…55e4backed No27c253.83$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No23c250$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d5…bfe9backed No16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed No25c230$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed No44c224.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4b…75b3backed No33c208.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…8f91backed No32c202.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No20c185.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…c8fbbacked No29c177.42$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No10c177$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6de…f451backed No48c173.7$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22fb…8a39backed No29c171.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e9…9fb1backed No23c170.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa58…7316backed No8c141.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No28c134$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed No20c126.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.221450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes74c125$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf385…4864backed Yes69c117.66$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.45per pick26cpaid+181.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x95c9…96afbacked No30c116.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick36cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No20c114.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f95…df3abacked No28c106.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…ed00backed No33c106.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa51c…8754backed No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa887…925dbacked No39c103.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8e…aaf5backed No29c102.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed No34c102$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1760%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c4a…a72ebacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d3…cc60backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+180%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…c3ddbacked No16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa0…2a08backed No32c94.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No17c93.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.