Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x933a13cf0882766e08ee5099de3ddea6f992da6485b9b953791df4b5a380b944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 3c | 12,599$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 7,960$6,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 16c | 7,008$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 76c | 5,982$4,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 18c | 5,947$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 14c | 5,398$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 80c | 4,834$3,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked No | 32c | 4,025$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 66c | 3,512$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 67c | 3,490$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed No | 25c | 2,629$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e4a1backed No | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 38c | 1,283$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…b6dcbacked No | 34c | 1,170$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 6c | 1,155$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 27c | 1,128$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 33c | 1,027$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 25c | 888$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 32c | 835.1$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked No | 25c | 829.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 78c | 800.29$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 25c | 797.71$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 79c | 679.66$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…efa8backed Yes | 78c | 648.01$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 640.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 29c | 609.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…e3ccbacked No | 19c | 597.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 72c | 542.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed No | 42c | 540.3$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 27c | 507.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 30c | 504.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked No | 20c | 502.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 26c | 500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 27c | 468$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 27c | 460.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 434.16$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 26c | 428$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 32c | 426.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 21c | 412.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 75c | 406.89$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…790ebacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 68c | 382.02$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed No | 19c | 370$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…11bfbacked No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 34c | 352.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…dcecbacked No | 30c | 335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed Yes | 80c | 332.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…a91ebacked No | 30c | 332.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 77c | 319$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No | 32c | 312.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…bdf4backed No | 28c | 305.07$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…d906backed No | 33c | 302.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 17c | 300.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…ddd3backed No | 35c | 284.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 21c | 282.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371f…b7e6backed Yes | 57c | 257.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbc…ea34backed No | 39c | 256.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed No | 27c | 253.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 23c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 25c | 230$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 44c | 224.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…75b3backed No | 33c | 208.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed No | 32c | 202.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 20c | 185.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…c8fbbacked No | 29c | 177.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 10c | 177$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…f451backed No | 48c | 173.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…8a39backed No | 29c | 171.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…9fb1backed No | 23c | 170.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…7316backed No | 8c | 141.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed No | 20c | 126.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 74c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 69c | 117.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…d63cbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 30c | 116.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 20c | 114.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…df3abacked No | 28c | 106.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…ed00backed No | 33c | 106.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…8754backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa887…925dbacked No | 39c | 103.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…aaf5backed No | 29c | 102.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed No | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…a72ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +180%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…2a08backed No | 32c | 94.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 17c | 93.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.