Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6728976c253400f1ebdb213ba4d7b38d2d408072948e1c03d855aadb098d0ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 999.95$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 29c | 845.65$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 72c | 697$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 69c | 260$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 28c | 180$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 30c | 173.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed No | 23c | 110$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…5f19backed Yes | 34c | 107.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 68.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x436a…af04backed No | 30c | 49.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…16eabacked No | 31c | 44.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…3eb2backed No | 31c | 42.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f0…190ebacked Yes | 67c | 37.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 73c | 21.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…ea2dbacked Yes | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd0…5bd7backed Yes | 71c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f67…e912backed Yes | 70c | 18.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…8fb0backed Yes | 71c | 18.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c3…3b7bbacked Yes | 71c | 17.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e252backed Yes | 71c | 17.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…0089backed Yes | 71c | 16.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…c8e6backed Yes | 71c | 16.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…7af9backed Yes | 71c | 15.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…0049backed Yes | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1d…53bebacked Yes | 70c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…2150backed Yes | 72c | 14.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…c33dbacked Yes | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.