Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5fe3f24162aae32029f0f1930de5f2fb35e6f7db470f54c57b97594ba34bdda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f89…0febbacked No | 44c | 42,519$18,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,708.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…ff77backed Yes | 56c | 42,519$23,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,708.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked Yes | 59c | 4,763$2,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 61c | 3,507$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 61c | 3,153$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 8c | 1,530$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 17c | 1,231$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 75c | 1,133$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 73c | 1,073$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 5c | 609.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked No | 9c | 527.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked No | 13c | 511.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 37c | 491.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 71c | 484.5$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 473.26$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 63c | 434$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 13c | 427.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed No | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 8c | 418.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 20c | 410.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 45c | 295.65$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 8c | 292.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 60c | 278.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 55c | 273.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 261.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 74c | 260$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…0772backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 68c | 247.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 238.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…cdb4backed Yes | 49c | 200.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 13c | 197.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 180.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 155.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 147.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…75d6backed Yes | 76c | 138.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…cd8abacked Yes | 73c | 137.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 136.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…e578backed No | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 55c | 120.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 34c | 94.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…8581backed No | 21c | 93.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…4caebacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 63.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…3582backed Yes | 70c | 63.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…2584backed No | 20c | 50.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed No | 26c | 50.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…2af8backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked Yes | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…47cabacked No | 35c | 41.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ce…e5c3backed No | 50c | 41.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 79c | 40.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…641cbacked No | 44c | 34.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 74c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 77c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…ed7abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 53c | 19.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 20?No won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.