Space · resolved market
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80c090e08e63fe3e1b42c746d4700174f871890714c65c77214e913051dbc0a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 75c | 2,688$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,105$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 53c | 1,004$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes | 52c | 989.36$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 41c | 850$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 60c | 827.08$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked No | 43c | 680.87$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 45c | 640.49$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…d934backed Yes | 4c | 516.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 64c | 497.21$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked Yes | 8c | 486.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 45c | 445.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 39c | 438.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 41c | 429$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…11bfbacked Yes | 71c | 336.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…e3ccbacked No | 38c | 333.86$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 64c | 296$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 295.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked No | 66c | 283$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +583.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 50c | 250$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 36c | 243.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 45c | 230$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed Yes | 59c | 180.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 32c | 173.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 27c | 169.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…dcecbacked Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 43c | 149.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 36c | 148.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 12c | 147.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 60c | 142.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 127.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed Yes | 31c | 118.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 25c | 112.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc0…cc95backed Yes | 69c | 111.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…b6dcbacked No | 58c | 106.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 101.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b1b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 61c | 91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 38c | 84.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 36c | 83.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked No | 32c | 78.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed No | 55c | 72.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 68c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 54c | 61.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed Yes | 33c | 58.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 55.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 69c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 50.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…43e4backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…cd8abacked Yes | 43c | 46.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 39c | 45.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…d68dbacked Yes | 29c | 41.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 64c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…1c9cbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7377…6414backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…962ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…5d21backed Yes | 47c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…4081backed Yes | 56c | 31.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed No | 44c | 30.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…2bd9backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…99cfbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 62c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…9b09backed Yes | 65c | 27.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…8b80backed Yes | 58c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 62c | 27.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c11…c503backed Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by April 30?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 launch by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9?No won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.