AI · resolved market
ChatGPT #1 app May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8c616db12f70b013f83b032cd5c7cb24bbab115529b98dc4071653dbe158323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 4c | 5,136$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.35 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 9c | 3,629$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 3,092$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed No | 21c | 1,224$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 1,075$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed No | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 8c | 886.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…1f6cbacked No | 3c | 517.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 455.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 75c | 411$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…4075backed No | 4c | 386.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 11c | 329.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 227.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 20c | 187.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…040bbacked No | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 9c | 129.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 14c | 114.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed No | 31c | 48.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…dd1ebacked No | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 68c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.